At a time of heightened geopolitical tensions, economic exchanges between nations are increasingly governed by a bloc-based approach. We are witnessing a reorganisation of trade between groups of geopolitically aligned countries, i.e. a geopolitical fragmentation of trade. This fragmentation began with the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and accelerated with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.... Lire la suite
DG Trésor predicts that global growth will reach 3.2% in 2024 and 3.4% in 2025. Increasing activity reflects the impact of monetary easing and the rebound in trade. Global activity is projected to be driven primarily by emerging economies despite the slowdown in China. In advanced countries, growth is envisaged to remain strong in the United States and more moderate in the euro area. Geopolitical... Lire la suite
The UK’s withdrawal from the EU, which was voted for in 2016 and which became effective on 1 January 2021, has affected the British economy through three main channels. Trade with the EU has suffered, temporarily for goods and more lastingly for services. Business investment has declined since 2016 against a backdrop of uncertainty. The strain on the labour market has been heightened by lower empl... Lire la suite
Emerging economies, especially Asian countries and commodity exporters, are the most vulnerable to the structural slowdown in Chinese growth, due to their high degree of trade and financial dependence on China (loans, FDI). They are expected to be affected by falling Chinese demand and the resulting impact on commodity prices, as well as by gradual, ongoing cuts to Chinese financing.... Lire la suite
While recent crises have been interpreted as signalling the end of globalisation, trade continues to grow and goods are travelling as far as before. Globalisation is, however, taking on a new form: the composition and geography of trade have changed. These changes are likely to intensify owing to companies’ strategies to secure their supply chains, climate change, various government policies and g... Lire la suite
La France a accueilli, le 16 mai à l’ENS Paris-Saclay, la première réunion en Europe du Conseil du commerce et des technologies (CCT). Organisée dans le cadre de la présidence française du conseil de l'Union européenne, cette rencontre réunissait la Commission européenne et les Etats-Unis.... Lire la suite
Publication du SER... Lire la suite