Rising tariffs are projected to hinder global economic growth and trade in 2025 and 2026. Emerging economies are expected to continue driving global growth, while advanced economies gain support from monetary easing policies. Trade policy developments are the primary downside risk to the economic forecast.... Lire la suite
The 2023 general government deficit stood at −5.5% of GDP compared to a forecast of −4.9% in the 2023-2027 Public Finance Planning Act. This difference essentially concerns aggregate taxes and social security contributions, for which the elasticity in relation to economic growth was at a record low. This decline has also significantly affected the projection for 2024 which was revised to −6.1% in... Lire la suite
DG Trésor predicts that global growth will reach 3.2% in 2024 and 3.4% in 2025. Increasing activity reflects the impact of monetary easing and the rebound in trade. Global activity is projected to be driven primarily by emerging economies despite the slowdown in China. In advanced countries, growth is envisaged to remain strong in the United States and more moderate in the euro area. Geopolitical... Lire la suite
DG Trésor projects that the global economy will expand by 3.1% in 2024 and 3.2% in 2025. This growth rate is slightly higher than expectations from the summer but remains below the pre-pandemic average, underscoring the effects of monetary tightening and geopolitical uncertainties. Growth in advanced economies is expected to be moderate, with significant disparities among countries. Meanwhile, eme... Lire la suite
Global economic activity should hold up better in 2023 than forecast in the spring, but growth should be below its pre-crisis average in both 2023 and 2024. While activity in some economies should continue to benefit from catch-up effects, growth in advanced countries should be held back by the rise in financing costs. In the emerging countries, economic activity is likely to remain dynamic, despi... Lire la suite
The 2022 public deficit stood at 4.7% of GDP, which was similar to the target stipulated in the 2022 Budget Bill drafted in the third quarter of 2021. This Bill could not foresee either the scale of the 2022 energy shock nor that of the measures implemented to support households and businesses. On the other hand, the capacity to revise forecasts rapidly and determined adherence to deficit commitme... Lire la suite