This paper summarises the ex ante macroeconomic assessment of the expected impact of France 2030 – earmarked to fund innovation with a budget of €54bn – on GDP growth and employment up to 2030, which was previously published in a dedicated report. The assessment relies on macroeconomic modelling using two models: Mésange, a joint French Treasury and Insee development and the European Commission’s... Lire la suite
The rise of generative artificial intelligence is raising questions about its effects on employment. From substitution at work to productivity gains that could stimulate demand for labour, the aggregate net effect is still uncertain, with certain workers at risk. At a time when France risks falling behind competitively, public authorities will need to provide support to facilitate AI’s adoption an... Lire la suite
Since the mid-2000s, greenhouse gas emissions in France have been declining, against a backdrop of bold climate commitments. Annual changes in these figures are driven by structural shifts as well as cyclical fluctuations. This paper presents a new methodology for estimating the contribution of cyclical effects. These effects heightened the decline in emissions in 2023 and 2024, and contributed on... Lire la suite
The macroprudential policy aims to safeguard the proper functioning of the financial system as a whole. In France, the policy is implemented by the High Council for Financial Stability (HCSF). The indicator of financial vulnerability quantifies the extent of vulnerability at a precise instant and compares it with previous periods. It is the French Treasury’s in-house instrument for assessing finan... Lire la suite
Quantum technologies, still in the early stages of development, could eventually produce major productivity gains (up to 8% of GDP). These gains will depend on the technical capabilities achieved by this technology, as well as on the structure of the sector’s value chain, which is currently being overhauled. France, backed by significant government support, has assets which must be further develop... Lire la suite
The lack of a common definition of government support for businesses explains the inability to compile an exhaustive, transparent list of such measures, for which recent estimates vary significantly. This paper proposes criteria for such a definition – including the public origin of the support, classification of its recipient as a business and the existence of an economic benefit – before outlini... Lire la suite
The new EU fiscal governance rules entered into force in April 2024, the product of negotiations started in 2022. Member States are now committed to adhering to a multiannual fiscal path set in “medium-term fiscal-structural plans” (MTFSPs), complying with the requirements from a sustainability analysis of their debt, as well as a reform and investment programme.... Lire la suite
The global economy has been significantly impacted by the conflict in the Middle East and the fresh energy shock that followed. The impact on the global growth outlook will depend on the duration and intensity of the conflict and is expected to vary across countries depending on their energy intensity and energy mix. However, the global growth outlook has been revised upward relative to the autumn... Lire la suite
Since 2021, the financial situation of DTIB companies has improved, with increasing profit margins and investment, larger returns and shrinking debt levels. However, they still need to address a significant cash flow requirement and long payment lead times. Increased defence spending and an expansion of financing opportunities could consolidate this improvement and boost business activity.... Lire la suite
Electricity interconnections play a vital role in the security of supply and the optimisation of the electricity grid. They provide consumers with access to more competitive and low-carbon electricity. However, they are costly assets that lead to significant distributional effects between consumers and producers. This paper focuses on the economic benefits and shortcomings of their development, an... Lire la suite