Tresor-Economics

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Trésor-Economics No. 215 - Economic measures to counter antimicrobial resistance

Human and animal consumption of antibiotics is leading to bacteriological mutations that threaten to make current drugs ineffective in the treatment of certain diseases. In the coming decades, increased antibiotic resistance could cause several million deaths worldwide annually and drive down economic activity by up to 0.8 points of GDP per year in developed countries between now and 2050. This... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 214 - The US automotive industry: Challenges and outlook

The 2008 economic and financial crisis hit the US automotive industry hard - especially the "Big Three" automakers General Motors, Ford and Chrysler. This crisis caused unprecedented upheaval on the US automobile market, leading to a sharp reduction in auto manufacturing. Between 2006 and 2009, the automotive industry lost 300,000 jobs, equivalent to nearly 30% of pre-crisis jobs in the sector.... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 213 - The size of central bank balance sheets: a new monetary policy instrument

Since the 2008/2009 crisis, the central banks of advanced countries have significantly expanded their balance sheets - not least through asset purchase programmes. With the economic situation improving, the question now turns to possibly reducing balance sheets - beginning in the US - and the economic effects of such a move. In October 2017, the US Federal Reserve started reducing its balance s... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 212 - Trade potentials: Targeting foreign markets

DG Trésor has developed a tool to support decision-making and target buoyant markets for French exports. This tool is backed by a quantitative analysis of France's potential exports to its main partners in given sectors. To assess trade potentials, a sector gravity model is used. Somewhat akin to Newton's theory of gravity, the model describes trade flows in terms of the economic and geographic... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 211 - Demographic challenges in the Maghreb countries

Following a decline in infant mortality, Maghreb countries entered a demographic transition phase in the 1940s and 1950s. A second phase began in the 1960s with birth planning and the subsequent fall in the fertility rate. The age pyramids of Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia have undergone rapid changes. This situation should be beneficial for them until 2050. The proportion of the population of wor... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 210 - Globalisation, growth and inequality: implications for economic policy

Trade globalisation has accelerated since the early 1980s, generating substantial economic gains globally. However, these gains have not been distributed evenly either across or within countries. Some emerging countries have notably benefited from globalisation and have narrowed their development gap with developed countries, reducing inequality globally.In the developed countries, high-income gro... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 209 - How to explain Germany's strong current account surplus?

Germany's current account – the difference between domestic saving and investment – was slightly in deficit in 2000. By 2016, it totalled an unprecedented €261bn, or more than 8% of the country's GDP. Wage moderation during the 2000s accounts for up to a third of this surplus. Slower increases in German wages relative to those in the euro area improved Germany's competitiveness within the singl... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 208 - Why is global inflation still so low?

Global inflation has declined sharply since 2012 to levels generally below central banks' inflation targets. The uptick over the past year is mainly attributable to a recovery in oil prices, and could be curtailed if higher prices do not feed through significantly to wages. So far, core inflation (excluding food and energy) has remained virtually flat. A long period of low inflation has numerou... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 207 - France's trade in value added

Foreign trade can be analyzed in terms of the domestic value added contained in exchanges. This enables each economy’s own contribution to its exports to be pinpointed, excluding those of other countries involved in the manufacturing process. In the value added approach, the aggregate trade balances of each country are the usual trade balances, but bilateral balances between countries and secto... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 206 - Potential growth in France

Economic assessment often relies on the estimates of potential growth and the output gap, an indicator which describes the position of the economy in the cycle. As these notions allow for the breakdown the general government balance into its structural and cyclical components, they also have a strong bearing on the steering of public finances. The uncertainty surrounding estimates of these conc... Lire la suite