Tresor-Economics

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The Distribution of Losses Caused by the Energy Terms of Trade Shock

In 2022, the rise in energy prices caused a significant loss of real income for France, a net importer of oil and gas. In this paper, the Directorate General of the Treasury estimates the gross cost of this shock prior to its propagation and behavioural changes. The various channels that can be used to mitigate real income loss and the support measures to address it are discussed, as is the distri... Lire la suite

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An indicator of the financial cycle in France since the beginning of the 2000s

The financial crisis of 2008-2009 underlined the importance of preserving financial stability, highlighting the need for new indicators to better understand the evolution of financial risks. Regulators and academics have developed the concept of the financial cycle to measure these vulnerabilities. In this study, DG Treasury presents indicators describing the evolution of the financial cycle for F... Lire la suite

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The Structural Economic Slowdown in Major Emerging Market Economies

The generalised catching up of the advanced countries by the large emerging countries has stalled since 2013. This slowdown in activity is structural in most countries due to the weakening of the dynamics of the factors of production (labour, capital, total factor productivity), which determine their potential growth. However, all major emerging countries have room to increase their potential grow... Lire la suite

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Economic Growth and Decarbonisation

A rapid and massive reduction in greenhouse gas emissions must make it possible to limit the effects of climate change. The success of decarbonisation will depend on the implementation of appropriate public policies aimed at reorienting the decisions of economic actors and supporting them. Given the uncertainties and complexity of the economic issues at stake, the understanding of the economic eff... Lire la suite

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How Crises Are Putting IMF Financial Support to the Test

The IMF remains, as it has been since 2020, a central player in crisis response. Since its creation in 1944, it has been able to rethink its historical instruments such as the Special Drawing Rights and evolve its toolkit to respond to the shifting crises affecting its membership. Today, to continue to ensure the stability of the international monetary system, the IMF is seeking to strengthen its... Lire la suite

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Bond Market Borrowing by Non-Financial Corporations

Bond debt of non-financial corporations (NFCs) has risen sharply since the 2008 financial crisis, driven in particular by favourable financing conditions and tighter banking regulation. While bond debt allows NFCs to diversify their sources of financing, it can be a source of vulnerability in the current context of high inflation and economic slowdown. In China, the market is still not very libera... Lire la suite

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World economic outlook in autumn 2022: The economy is bruised, but not broken

The global economy is facing headwinds, including higher energy prices and tighter monetary policies. It benefits from fiscal support and the gradual easing of supply pressures. As a result, global growth is expected to moderate in 2022 and 2023. The advanced economies would slow down but remain in growth. China would be penalised by the "zero Covid" strategy and Russia would record a sharp drop i... Lire la suite

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China’s Dependence on the Property Sector as an Engine of Growth

After twenty years of dazzling development, the Chinese property sector is facing a major crisis. However, beyond its cyclical aspects, this crisis reflects a loss of steam in the Chinese growth model, which is based on a profoundly unbalanced property sector. The authorities are now faced with a dilemma, between the two imponderables of the structural clean-up of the sector and the cyclical recov... Lire la suite

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Privacy Protection and Competition in the Digital World

The concentration of personal data by digital platforms raises questions about the cross-fertilisation of privacy and competition policies, particularly when personal data becomes a source of market power that can lead to abuse. Faced with these intersecting issues, competition authorities and data regulators are developing collaborations and reflections are emerging on new regulatory methods.... Lire la suite

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The Crypto Boom: Challenges and Risks

Crypto-assets refer to a multitude of heterogeneous assets, which, although they are used relatively little as a means of payment, constitute an increasingly widespread asset class, supported by the development of a financial ecosystem and the emergence of decentralised finance. However, they present various limitations and risks for investors, highlighted by the violent correction episodes that h... Lire la suite