In response to rising mortgage debt for households, regulation of mortgage lending conditions for households was introduced in France by the Higher Council for Financial Stability. An assessment has shown that this measure, which became binding in 1 January 2022, has reduced the average DSTI ratio while increasing the average mortgage maturity. However, the effect on property prices has been limit... Lire la suite
Rising tariffs are projected to hinder global economic growth and trade in 2025 and 2026. Emerging economies are expected to continue driving global growth, while advanced economies gain support from monetary easing policies. Trade policy developments are the primary downside risk to the economic forecast.... Lire la suite
Having initially focused on supporting the birth rate, family policy now has three goals: contributing to offsetting family expenses, helping vulnerable families and ensuring a work-life balance. To this end, it has a large number of schemes that are sometimes difficult to understand. It nevertheless carries out significant redistribution from childless families to other families, especially large... Lire la suite
International industrial policy takeaways since 1945 suggest that the identification of market opportunities, competition between players and technology options, and maintaining high performance standards are important factors for success. In France, industrial policy stands out for the significance of vertical interventions and the focus on a small number of large firms.... Lire la suite
In China, 177 million workers live in places other than the area registered in their hukou, China’s “internal passport”. These migrant workers are employed in flexible, low-skilled jobs and have limited access to healthcare, pensions and public education. This situation boosts the competitiveness of China’s growth model, but breeds inequality and slows human capital accumulation.... Lire la suite
The 2023 general government deficit stood at −5.5% of GDP compared to a forecast of −4.9% in the 2023-2027 Public Finance Planning Act. This difference essentially concerns aggregate taxes and social security contributions, for which the elasticity in relation to economic growth was at a record low. This decline has also significantly affected the projection for 2024 which was revised to −6.1% in... Lire la suite
Despite major uncertainty in summer 2022, when the 2023 Budget Bill was being drafted, the French Treasury forecast GDP growth of 1.0%, almost matching the final estimate from INSEE (0.9%). The scenario’s key assumptions, in particular an uninterrupted energy supply and an upturn in aircraft manufacturing and electricity generation, were confirmed. The 2024 Budget Bill forecast for GDP growth for... Lire la suite
The structure of the artificial intelligence value chain is a determinant of the innovation landscape. Tech giants play a major role in this landscape given their presence across the value chain. Although new entrants are challenging this status quo, it raises questions about economic efficiency, fair competition and sovereignty. France has major competitive advantages in this race, including data... Lire la suite
Limiting global warming to 1.5°C, as laid down in the Paris Agreement, and adapting to its impacts requires financing known as “climate finance”. Every year, France along with other developed countries provide this finance to developing countries to assist them in implementing this agreement and to attain the annual $100bn goal. This target, which ends in 2025, was renegotiated at COP29.... Lire la suite
China’s decline in growth is characterised by growing imbalances between the prioritisation of industry and investment on one hand and low consumption and the property crisis on the other. While this situation is reminiscent of 1990s Japan, which suffered a weak growth rate and low inflation, China’s economic slowdown could be less severe if its growth model is rebalanced.... Lire la suite