The economy is facing mixed prospects in the international environment: while buoyed by recovery plans in Europe and falling commodity prices, it also has sticky core inflation and an uncertain geopolitical climate to contend with. World growth is projected to slow in 2023 and rebound moderately in 2024. With the exception of the United Kingdom, advanced economies should avoid a recession, and eme... Lire la suite
The European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) was created in 2005 to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from emitting sectors in the EU. Its impact on productivity is unclear, however, as it imposes constraints on production processes. This paper shows that the EU ETS was not detrimental to firm productivity from 2005 to 2017, despite heterogeneous effects depending on factors such as a firm’s... Lire la suite
Formal childcare for young children before they start nursery school (école maternelle) has a dual objective: to support parents’ professional activity and to foster children’s cognitive development. Whilst the current shortfall in the childcare offering in France hampers the reduction of social and gender inequality, a number of measures are increasing recourse to childcare in day nurseries (crèc... Lire la suite
Having been traditionally operated by monopolies, telecom networks were gradually and successfully opened to competition as from the 1990s. In 2022, there are four major fixed and mobile operators competing fiercely with each other on the consumer market in France. This situation means that prices are amongst the lowest in Europe with huge investments being made. Competition is not as strong on th... Lire la suite
Public consumption encompasses the services provided to households by government departments. In the first half of 2020, it fell significantly in France and the United Kingdom while remaining stable or rising in Germany, Italy and Spain. These divergences are essentially due to different manners of measuring public service activity during the lockdowns. They argue in favour of prudent interpretati... Lire la suite
Since the 1990s, China has experienced a strong development of its equity and bond markets, structured around the Shenzhen and Shanghai markets. However, their liberalisation and opening to foreign capital remain incomplete. In recent years, Chinese financial markets have undergone a series of reforms, with the dual objective of financing innovation and the ecological transition on the one hand, a... Lire la suite
In 2022, the rise in energy prices caused a significant loss of real income for France, a net importer of oil and gas. In this paper, the Directorate General of the Treasury estimates the gross cost of this shock prior to its propagation and behavioural changes. The various channels that can be used to mitigate real income loss and the support measures to address it are discussed, as is the distri... Lire la suite
The financial crisis of 2008-2009 underlined the importance of preserving financial stability, highlighting the need for new indicators to better understand the evolution of financial risks. Regulators and academics have developed the concept of the financial cycle to measure these vulnerabilities. In this study, DG Treasury presents indicators describing the evolution of the financial cycle for F... Lire la suite
The generalised catching up of the advanced countries by the large emerging countries has stalled since 2013. This slowdown in activity is structural in most countries due to the weakening of the dynamics of the factors of production (labour, capital, total factor productivity), which determine their potential growth. However, all major emerging countries have room to increase their potential grow... Lire la suite
A rapid and massive reduction in greenhouse gas emissions must make it possible to limit the effects of climate change. The success of decarbonisation will depend on the implementation of appropriate public policies aimed at reorienting the decisions of economic actors and supporting them. Given the uncertainties and complexity of the economic issues at stake, the understanding of the economic eff... Lire la suite