China’s decline in growth is characterised by growing imbalances between the prioritisation of industry and investment on one hand and low consumption and the property crisis on the other. While this situation is reminiscent of 1990s Japan, which suffered a weak growth rate and low inflation, China’s economic slowdown could be less severe if its growth model is rebalanced.... Lire la suite
The energy transition is expected to involve use of mineral-intensive technologies, with high demand for certain so-called “critical” or “strategic” minerals such as lithium, copper and rare-earth elements. In the short term, the global supply of these minerals should be sufficient to meet shifts in demand, even though the value chain is heavily concentrated, particularly in China. The possibility... Lire la suite
DG Trésor predicts that global growth will reach 3.2% in 2024 and 3.4% in 2025. Increasing activity reflects the impact of monetary easing and the rebound in trade. Global activity is projected to be driven primarily by emerging economies despite the slowdown in China. In advanced countries, growth is envisaged to remain strong in the United States and more moderate in the euro area. Geopolitical... Lire la suite
The series of crises from 2020 to 2023 has impacted France’s GDP and its growth drivers. The diminished performance of existing nowcasting models required alternative models to be developed. These alternative models show that supply factors became predominant determinants of French GDP growth in the recent period, corroborating our analysis of business outlook survey data.... Lire la suite
Every year, around 15% to 20% of new constructions are started even though there has been an at-least equivalent increase in the number of dwellings that have been vacant for more than two years in the same municipality. This constitutes a non-negligible stock to address both housing needs and to fight urban sprawl, depopulation of town centres and land take.... Lire la suite
Since the 1990s, Nordic countries have raised their carbon taxes and at times introduced double pricing (carbon tax and ETS allowances) with a view to achieving their national climate targets. Support measures (offsetting to preserve purchasing power, subsidies, tax exemptions) have also been implemented which have encouraged ambitious industrial solutions (low-carbon steel, bioenergy, electrifica... Lire la suite
Net-zero transition and broader economic policy assessments aim to estimate how effective they are in achieving their economic and climate objectives. Ultimately, the aim is to compare the outcomes and minimise their costs. The new Mésange Vert module extends the scope of the Mésange macroeconometric model to include instructive and worthwhile macro-environmental policy assessment.... Lire la suite
Effective guidance and orientation of young people to appropriate degree programmes is essential for reducing student failure in higher education and ensuring that students acquire skills aligned with the economy's needs.... Lire la suite
The UK’s withdrawal from the EU, which was voted for in 2016 and which became effective on 1 January 2021, has affected the British economy through three main channels. Trade with the EU has suffered, temporarily for goods and more lastingly for services. Business investment has declined since 2016 against a backdrop of uncertainty. The strain on the labour market has been heightened by lower empl... Lire la suite
The literature provides various estimates of the additional investment in low-carbon items required in France to achieve decarbonisation targets, ranging from an extra €55 billion to €130 billion per year by 2030 – a two to five percentage point increase in GDP annually. This paper, applying a harmonised approach to these results and using supplementary figures, estimates an additional investment... Lire la suite