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How Much Investment Is Required To Reach France’s Decarbonisation Targets For 2030?

Rédigé par : Logan Gourmand

The literature provides various estimates of the additional investment in low-carbon items required in France to achieve decarbonisation targets, ranging from an extra €55 billion to €130 billion per year by 2030 – a two to five percentage point increase in GDP annually. This paper, applying a harmonised approach to these results and using supplementary figures, estimates an additional investment... Lire la suite

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The Economic Implications of Artificial Intelligence

Rédigé par : Besson, Dozias, Faivre, Gallezot, Gouy-Waz, Vidalenc

Artificial intelligence (AI) is a technology which has the potential to generate significant productivity gains that still go largely undetected at macroeconomic level, due to firms’ limited adoption of AI. Its impact on employment is more uncertain, although it could affect high-skill jobs to a greater extent than in the previous technological revolutions. Education, training and competition poli... Lire la suite

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Implementation of Monetary Policy in the Euro Area and the United States

Rédigé par : Alvarez, Cabot, Debever, Lee, Mainguet, Salin

The monetary policies of the Fed and the ECB have both been subject to significant changes since the 2008 financial crisis. The two central banks have had to adapt to recurring shocks (including, most recently, the COVID-19 pandemic and the inflation shock) by changing their instruments with a view to fulfilling their respective mandates. Following a period of low rates and ballooning balance shee... Lire la suite

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World Economic Outlook in Spring 2024 Moderate and Uneven Growth

Rédigé par : Équipes chargées des prévisions internationales

DG Trésor projects that the global economy will expand by 3.1% in 2024 and 3.2% in 2025. This growth rate is slightly higher than expectations from the summer but remains below the pre-pandemic average, underscoring the effects of monetary tightening and geopolitical uncertainties. Growth in advanced economies is expected to be moderate, with significant disparities among countries. Meanwhile, eme... Lire la suite

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The EU Single Market, a Driver for Economic and Trade Integration

Rédigé par : Samuel Adjutor, Antoine Bena, Simon Ganem

The single market is the world’s largest developed market, in which Member States enjoy close economic relations. The market has helped to promote innovation and ramp up productivity and GDP, as well as bring convergence within the European Union. The single market has not led to increased relative specialisation of EU Member States. In the period from 1984 to 2019, their goods’ export structures... Lire la suite

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Intra-EU Mobility of Persons

Rédigé par : Cyprien Batut, Tristan Gantois, Jean Lavallée

The European Union (EU) is building a common market and European citizenship based on the principle of free movement. The EU’s enlargement has allowed for an increase in intra-EU mobility. The removal of barriers to mobility has underpinned labour productivity within the EU and the economic integration of its Member States. There are still obstacles to mobility such as linguistic and cultural diff... Lire la suite

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How Dependent Are Emerging Market Economies on China's Growth?

Rédigé par : Louis Bertrand, Eloïse Villani

Emerging economies, especially Asian countries and commodity exporters, are the most vulnerable to the structural slowdown in Chinese growth, due to their high degree of trade and financial dependence on China (loans, FDI). They are expected to be affected by falling Chinese demand and the resulting impact on commodity prices, as well as by gradual, ongoing cuts to Chinese financing.... Lire la suite

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Italy and its Demographic Challenge

Rédigé par : Pierre Farineau

Italy could see a 20% decline in its population by 2070 as a result of its severe natural decrease. A dwindling and ageing population is hampering GDP growth and putting public finances and public debt sustainability under pressure. Measures – whose outcomes are as yet unclear – have been taken to mitigate the impact of unfavourable demographic trends, while the changes to the pension system for 2... Lire la suite

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Interest Rates, Growth and Public Debt Sustainability

Rédigé par : Guillaume Clavères

The trajectory of public debt as a percentage of GDP depends on the accumulation of annual primary public balances and the spread between interest rates and growth rates. Historically, in France and in the major advanced countries, this gap has been highly volatile, alternating between positive and negative periods. Analysis of the conditions that have enabled debt ratios to be reduced in the past... Lire la suite

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The Dual Income Tax System in Sweden

Rédigé par : Gianella, d’Hardemare, d’Armaillé, Grosjean, Lemaître

Sweden was the first country to adopt a dual income tax system, with the progressive taxation of earned income and the flat-rate tax for capital income, under the 1991 tax reform. This reform, which set out to lower taxes and broaden tax bases, has had a positive long-term impact on business investment and labour supply. It was then followed by a significant cut in aggregate tax and social securit... Lire la suite

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