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Trésor-Economics No. 237 - World economic outlook in spring 2019: Diverging performances in the global slowdown

Rédigé par : DG Trésor

The global economy showed strong growth again in 2018, with world GDP up 3.7%. However, a slowdown is expected in 2019 and 2020 (world GDP growth seen at 3.4% p.a.), especially in advanced economies.The euro area's growth rate is set to decline further in 2019. Apart from temporary factors, this is attributable to a slowdow in world demand, considerable uncertainty weighing on investment and consu... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 236 - An overview of minimum wages in advanced economies

Rédigé par : DG Trésor

Most major advanced economies have a minimum wage. In Germany, Spain and the United Kingdom, there is a single national minimum wage, as in France. In Japan and the United States, minimum thresholds are set at local level. In Italy, there is no legal minimum wage. In addition, there are differences in the minimum wage's characteristics and how it is determined. The age at which the minimum wage is... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 235 - How can government spending on education be made more efficient?

Rédigé par : DG Trésor

Investment in education provides substantial long-term gains for individuals, the economy and society as a whole. However, not all government intervention in this area is equally efficient in terms of meeting the goal of educating and training citizens who are able to make a living from their work.Technical advances and globalisation are not only increasing demand for qualifications but also the u... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 234 - The change in the labour share in value added in advanced economies

Rédigé par : DG Trésor

Analysis of how the value added is shared between production factors provides insight into trends in inequalities and private consumption. The division reflects both relative changes in the volumes of capital and labour, and the relative trends in compensation per unit of capital and labour. "Distributable surplus" is a helpful concept for studying the division of value added; it is the share of r... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 233 - Relation between inflation and the cycle in the past five years

Rédigé par : DG Trésor

The business cycle has a significant effect on inflation, known as the Phillips effect: growth 1 point higher than its potential in a given year increases next-year inflation by 0.3 point. The correlation between inflation and the economy's position in the business cycle weakened in the 1970s and 1980s, but does not appear to have declined further in the past 15 years.In the past few years, French... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 232 - Competition and market concentration in the United States

Rédigé par : DG Trésor

In most sectors, market concentration in the United States has been on the rise for the past two decades. Major companies have a larger market share than before, fuelling a renewed antitrust debate.This increase may be attributed to several phenomena, but it is difficult to disentangle their respective contributions. Reallocating production to highly productive and profitable companies (the so-cal... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 231 - The global network of central bank swap lines

Rédigé par : DG Trésor

Bilateral swap lines are ex-ante arrangements between central banks that provide protection from foreign currency liquidity risk. These lines are not subject to conditionality, and foreign central banks can draw on them under predefined terms. From an economic standpoint, the transaction can be likened to a foreign currency loan, backed by local currency collateral, with the borrower bearing the f... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 230 - Investigating France's shrinking agricultural and agri-food trade surplus

Rédigé par : DG Trésor

The agricultural and agri-food sector is one of France's strongest export performers. Its trade surplus – €5.5bn in 2017 – is the third largest, on the heels of the aerospace and chemicals sectors. A large proportion of this surplus is attributable to a small number of products, beverages and cereals in particular.Since the beginning of the 2010s, this surplus has gradually declined. The increased... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 229 - The New Silk Road

Rédigé par : DG Trésor

Chinese President Xi Jinping's signature "One Belt, One Road" policy, also known as the "Belt and Road Initiative" (BRI) or the "New Silk Road", was officially launched in 2013. The initiative has now become a cornerstone of the economic development and trade strategy of the world's second-largest economy.The BRI seeks to provide a response to the infrastructure needs of more than 60 developing co... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 228 - Labour market reforms in Italy

Rédigé par : DG Trésor

In 2015, the Renzi government adopted a labour market reform, the "Jobs Act", in response to a relatively low labour force participation rate and a high degree of dualism in the labour market, . In addition and unlike its trading partners, productivity gains have stalled in Italy, which is becoming less competitive.Building on the 2012 Fornero reforms, the Jobs Act relaxed protections for employee... Lire la suite

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