Tresor-Economics

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World economic outlook in autumn 2021: Catching up at uneven paces

Global activity should rebound significantly in 2021 thanks to vaccination campaigns and fiscal and monetary support measures. The United States would catch up with the 2019 level of activity as early as 2021, while European countries would regain it between the end of 2021 and the end of 2022 depending on the country. World trade would rebound in 2021, supported by the recovery in global activity... Lire la suite

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Skills and Intersectoral Labour Reallocation in the aftermath of the COVID-19 Crisis

The crisis could accelerate sectoral reallocations of jobs. Even after the expected rebound once the restrictions are lifted, activity in some sectors could remain below pre-crisis levels. This will imply job losses in some sectors and job creation in others, the extent of which will depend on the capacity of employment to reallocate. In order to support retraining, it is important to inform worke... Lire la suite

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Employee Financial Participation Schemes in France and Europe

9 million employees in France are covered by a value-sharing scheme: profit-sharing, participation or employee share ownership. They are present in all European countries, but differ in form or implementation. Some countries do not intervene; others adopt a more proactive strategy. France stands out for both the wide spread and the institutionalisation of these systems. It is the only country to h... Lire la suite

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Climate Strategies in the Nordic Countries

The Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden) have implemented innovative decarbonisation strategies. Pioneers in green public policies (carbon tax since 1990, support measures for low-income households, targeted support for industry, sustainable finance), they now have the four most advanced energy transitions in Europe. They are at the "technological frontier" in terms of i... Lire la suite

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TARGET2 Imbalances in the Euro Area

TARGET2 is the Eurosystem's own system, which is essential for the functioning of the euro area and allows the settlement of financial transactions between commercial banks located in different countries of the euro area. The balances associated with TARGET2 have increased since 2008 as a result of the ECB's monetary policy. They are expected to decline with, inter alia, the gradual end of the ECB... Lire la suite

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Do road users pay a fair price for their journeys?

This article details the externalities and charges on road traffic and finds that road use, excluding toll motorways and petrol vehicles in rural areas, is generally under-priced. A better coverage of the external costs of road transport would require a reduction of its externalities and a more adapted pricing, in particular in urban areas and on national roads, where cost coverage is particularly... Lire la suite

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The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on French firms

As part of the work of the Coeuré Committee, the DG Treasury has developed a micro-simulation tool to estimate the impact of the crisis, as well as of the measures put in place to respond to it, on the financial situation of French companies. The results show that although the financial situation deteriorated in 2020 compared to a year without a crisis, public policies - especially partial activit... Lire la suite

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World economic outlook in Spring 2021: an uneven recovery

Global activity would rebound in 2021 as the health situation gradually improves. The United States would catch up in 2021 with the level of activity in 2019, Germany would regain it in 2022, while Spain and Italy would remain below it by that time. World trade rebounds in 2021, supported by the normalisation of industrial production, and trade increases in 2022 with activity. The evolution of the... Lire la suite

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A Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism for the European Union

The EU plans to introduce a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to tackle carbon leakage more effectively. This phenomenon corresponds to an increase in emissions in the rest of the world as a result of the implementation of more ambitious climate policies, such as carbon pricing, by some countries. A CBAM will enhance the effectiveness of European climate policies, and needs to address lega... Lire la suite

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The Economic Effects of Epidemics

The rapid spread of the Covid-19 epidemic in China, its evolution into a global pandemic and the contraction of activity are a reminder of the vulnerability of economies to infectious diseases. Past epidemics have had clear economic effects through several channels, ranging from a few tenths of a point to several points of GDP depending on their severity. The effects of the current pandemic would... Lire la suite