Tresor-Economics

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Trésor-Economics No. 223 - What do business surveys tell us about the position of the economy in the business cycle?

Knowing the position of the economy in the business cycle is important for implementing economic policy. It makes it possible, for example, to draw up a medium-term growth scenario: an overheating economy is likely to slow down whereas a demand deficient economy could beat its potential growth rate. Similarly, it makes it possible to identify the structural component of the general government bala... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 222 - Renewable energy sources for heating

In France, energy consumption for heating accounts for nearly half of final energy consumption. Energy for heating still largely comes from fossil fuel sources (with more than 60% of energy for heating coming from natural gas, fuel oil and coal), making this sector a crucial battleground for decarbonising the economy.Fuelwood, mainly used to produce heat, is currently the leading renewable energy... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 220 - Is higher wage growth on the horizon in Japan?

After the 1997 economic crisis, Japanese companies were burdened by high levels of debt. They attempted to deleverage by lowering their wage bill, through both job cuts and wage restraint. Japan's unemployment rate, which had been below 3.5% until 1997, then rose significantly to peak at 5.5% in June 2002. Average per capita wages declined by 0.7% p.a. between 1998 and 2013, keeping Japan in defla... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 219 - The efficiency of the French public research system

In 2015, France was in fifth place amongst major OECD countries for public R&D spending. Including defence-related R&D, this spending accounted for 0.86% of GDP, putting France above the OECD average but leaving it trailing the leading pack (Nordic countries, South Korea and Germany) and below the Lisbon Strategy target of 1% of GDP.Specific features characterise the organisational structure and g... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 218 - World economic outlook in spring 2018: growth still strong

After a sharp acceleration to 3.7% in 2017, world GDP growth is set to maintain a similar pace in 2018 and 2019 (3.8% p.a.), driven by both advanced and emerging countries.In the United States, growth is expected to gather pace thanks to expansionary fiscal measures (tax reform and budget agreement in Congress leading to higher public spending). Conversely, growth is likely to slow in Japan (albei... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 217 - The persistence of informal employment in the South Asian economies

Amongst major emerging regions, South Asia stands out in terms of the sheer size of the informal sector which is estimated to cover nearly 275 million non-farming jobs, or four out of five positions. If farming jobs are taken into account, its share rises to more than nine jobs in ten.While familiar to labour economists, the phenomenon of informality remains difficult to quantify accurately and ca... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 216 - The shift in US wage share

The share of wages in value added was stable for decades in the United States, before it started diminishing in the 2000s. The wage share historically fluctuated around an average 63 percent, before declining by nearly 6 percentage points from its 1948-2001 level. Similarly, the wage share has fallen in most advanced and emerging countries, with the exception of France.The decline of the aggregate... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 215 - Economic measures to counter antimicrobial resistance

Human and animal consumption of antibiotics is leading to bacteriological mutations that threaten to make current drugs ineffective in the treatment of certain diseases. In the coming decades, increased antibiotic resistance could cause several million deaths worldwide annually and drive down economic activity by up to 0.8 points of GDP per year in developed countries between now and 2050.This hea... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 214 - The US automotive industry: Challenges and outlook

The 2008 economic and financial crisis hit the US automotive industry hard - especially the "Big Three" automakers General Motors, Ford and Chrysler.This crisis caused unprecedented upheaval on the US automobile market, leading to a sharp reduction in auto manufacturing. Between 2006 and 2009, the automotive industry lost 300,000 jobs, equivalent to nearly 30% of pre-crisis jobs in the sector.In 2... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 213 - The size of central bank balance sheets: a new monetary policy instrument

Since the 2008/2009 crisis, the central banks of advanced countries have significantly expanded their balance sheets - not least through asset purchase programmes. With the economic situation improving, the question now turns to possibly reducing balance sheets - beginning in the US - and the economic effects of such a move.In October 2017, the US Federal Reserve started reducing its balance sheet... Lire la suite