Oil is an essential resource for the global economy, especially for transportation and industry. Oil prices are driven by the balance between global supply and demand, as well as by market expectations. The 2026 conflict in the Middle East illustrates the influence of geopolitical tensions on oil prices, which affect the global economy primarily through the inflation channel.... Lire la suite
Since 2023, the French Treasury has used the macro-environmental model ThreeME, which was co-developed by the ADEME and the OFCE. The model can be used to evaluate the economic impact of climate and energy policies, such as household investment incentives for housing retrofitting and vehicle electrification. The French Treasury, with the OFCE, publishes a shock scenario logbook setting out the eco... Lire la suite
This paper summarises the ex ante macroeconomic assessment of the expected impact of France 2030 – earmarked to fund innovation with a budget of €54bn – on GDP growth and employment up to 2030, which was previously published in a dedicated report. The assessment relies on macroeconomic modelling using two models: Mésange, a joint French Treasury and Insee development and the European Commission’s... Lire la suite
An increasing number of unemployment benefit claimants are becoming eligible after signing a mutual termination agreement. On average, they are better qualified, more educated and better integrated into the labour market prior to claiming unemployment benefits than the broader pool of claimants. However, they return to work at a slower rate in the two years following the end of their contract, wh... Lire la suite
The rise of generative artificial intelligence is raising questions about its effects on employment. From substitution at work to productivity gains that could stimulate demand for labour, the aggregate net effect is still uncertain, with certain workers at risk. At a time when France risks falling behind competitively, public authorities will need to provide support to facilitate AI’s adoption an... Lire la suite
Since the mid-2000s, greenhouse gas emissions in France have been declining, against a backdrop of bold climate commitments. Annual changes in these figures are driven by structural shifts as well as cyclical fluctuations. This paper presents a new methodology for estimating the contribution of cyclical effects. These effects heightened the decline in emissions in 2023 and 2024, and contributed on... Lire la suite
The macroprudential policy aims to safeguard the proper functioning of the financial system as a whole. In France, the policy is implemented by the High Council for Financial Stability (HCSF). The indicator of financial vulnerability quantifies the extent of vulnerability at a precise instant and compares it with previous periods. It is the French Treasury’s in-house instrument for assessing finan... Lire la suite
Quantum technologies, still in the early stages of development, could eventually produce major productivity gains (up to 8% of GDP). These gains will depend on the technical capabilities achieved by this technology, as well as on the structure of the sector’s value chain, which is currently being overhauled. France, backed by significant government support, has assets which must be further develop... Lire la suite
The lack of a common definition of government support for businesses explains the inability to compile an exhaustive, transparent list of such measures, for which recent estimates vary significantly. This paper proposes criteria for such a definition – including the public origin of the support, classification of its recipient as a business and the existence of an economic benefit – before outlini... Lire la suite
The new EU fiscal governance rules entered into force in April 2024, the product of negotiations started in 2022. Member States are now committed to adhering to a multiannual fiscal path set in “medium-term fiscal-structural plans” (MTFSPs), complying with the requirements from a sustainability analysis of their debt, as well as a reform and investment programme.... Lire la suite