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World Economic Outlook in Autumn 2025: Global Economy Hampered by an Adverse Trade Environment

Rédigé par : French Treasury (DG Trésor) International Forecasting Teams

The global economic outlook has been revised downwards from spring forecasts as the global economy continues to reel from US tariffs and an uncertain environment. Growth trends are set to vary among advanced economies, while growth is expected to slow down in emerging economies which should continue nonetheless to drive global growth. Trade policy is still the main downside risk to the economic fo... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Eco

The Attention Economy in the Digital Age

Rédigé par : Solal Chardon-Boucaud

Digital firms in the attention economy use business models that monetise consumer attention. Although this generates economic activity, it has negative externalities for users and society that can affect GDP (e.g. due to a decline in cognitive abilities). To reduce these externalities, regulators have several options at their disposal, such as reining in the most harmful features of platforms.... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Eco

World Economic Outlook in Spring 2025 Growth Amid Global Turbulence

Rédigé par : French Treasury (DG Trésor) International Forecasting Teams

Rising tariffs are projected to hinder global economic growth and trade in 2025 and 2026. Emerging economies are expected to continue driving global growth, while advanced economies gain support from monetary easing policies. Trade policy developments are the primary downside risk to the economic forecast.... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Eco

Lessons from Past Industrial Policies

Rédigé par : B. Alvarez, Ch. Gallezot, Cl. Hida, G. Mouilleseaux

International industrial policy takeaways since 1945 suggest that the identification of market opportunities, competition between players and technology options, and maintaining high performance standards are important factors for success. In France, industrial policy stands out for the significance of vertical interventions and the focus on a small number of large firms.... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Eco

The Artificial Intelligence Value Chain: What Economic Stakes and Role for France?

Rédigé par : Solal Chardon-Boucaud, Arthur Dozias, Charlotte Gallezot

The structure of the artificial intelligence value chain is a determinant of the innovation landscape. Tech giants play a major role in this landscape given their presence across the value chain. Although new entrants are challenging this status quo, it raises questions about economic efficiency, fair competition and sovereignty. France has major competitive advantages in this race, including data... Lire la suite

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The Economic Implications of Artificial Intelligence

Rédigé par : Besson, Dozias, Faivre, Gallezot, Gouy-Waz, Vidalenc

Artificial intelligence (AI) is a technology which has the potential to generate significant productivity gains that still go largely undetected at macroeconomic level, due to firms’ limited adoption of AI. Its impact on employment is more uncertain, although it could affect high-skill jobs to a greater extent than in the previous technological revolutions. Education, training and competition poli... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Eco

World Economic Outlook in Spring 2024 Moderate and Uneven Growth

Rédigé par : Équipes chargées des prévisions internationales

DG Trésor projects that the global economy will expand by 3.1% in 2024 and 3.2% in 2025. This growth rate is slightly higher than expectations from the summer but remains below the pre-pandemic average, underscoring the effects of monetary tightening and geopolitical uncertainties. Growth in advanced economies is expected to be moderate, with significant disparities among countries. Meanwhile, eme... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Eco

World Economic Outlook in Autumn 2023: The Economy is Holding Out Against Rising Interest Rates

Rédigé par : Équipes chargées des prévisions internationales

Global economic activity should hold up better in 2023 than forecast in the spring, but growth should be below its pre-crisis average in both 2023 and 2024. While activity in some economies should continue to benefit from catch-up effects, growth in advanced countries should be held back by the rise in financing costs. In the emerging countries, economic activity is likely to remain dynamic, despi... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Eco

What Factors Could Drive the Reorganisation of Global Value Chains?

Rédigé par : Aymeric Lachaux

While recent crises have been interpreted as signalling the end of globalisation, trade continues to grow and goods are travelling as far as before. Globalisation is, however, taking on a new form: the composition and geography of trade have changed. These changes are likely to intensify owing to companies’ strategies to secure their supply chains, climate change, various government policies and g... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Eco

World Economic Outlook in Spring 2023: The Economy Reaches Its Trough

Rédigé par : International Forecasting Teams

The economy is facing mixed prospects in the international environment: while buoyed by recovery plans in Europe and falling commodity prices, it also has sticky core inflation and an uncertain geopolitical climate to contend with. World growth is projected to slow in 2023 and rebound moderately in 2024. With the exception of the United Kingdom, advanced economies should avoid a recession, and eme... Lire la suite