Tresor-Economics

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World economic outlook in autumn 2020: What sort of recovery after the record economic decline?

The covid-19 epidemic and associated containment measures would result in a historic decline in global activity by 2020. Emerging economies would catch up by the end of 2021 to their 2019 level of activity, unlike advanced economies, where the rebound would be more limited. The decline in trade would be even more pronounced. Developments in the epidemic, the productive fabric, the labor market, an... Lire la suite

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Unequal living conditions under lockdown

Inequalities in housing are the first indicator of socio-economic inequalities in the face of confinement, from the most dramatic examples (unhealthy and overcrowded housing, prison environments, homeless populations) to the most ordinary ones. However, experiences of confinement have also been contrasted according to gender or family situation, while school closures and the distance education sys... Lire la suite

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Private housing construction and renovation in France

Since 2010, territorial disparities in the housing market have increased (drop in the rate of occupied housing, price divergence). This dynamic runs counter to the objectives of housing policy and the reduction of CO2 emissions and land artificialisation. In the future, public policies should make it possible to stimulate construction in areas with excess demand, in a dense and low-carbon manner,... Lire la suite

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Can low-skilled workers benefit from innovation in France?

Technical progress tends to destroy low-skilled jobs that can be easily automated and to increase the average wage gap between low-skilled and high-skilled workers. However, both French and British data show that low-skilled workers have a higher wage gain from working in innovative firms than high-skilled workers. These results must be seen in the context of the lower demand for low-skilled labou... Lire la suite

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Two decades of economic transformation in China

The Chinese growth model, largely financed by the indebtedness of companies and local authorities, has led to strong internal imbalances (excessive debt, unstable real estate sector, fragile banking system). Although, despite the reforms implemented since 2016, the rebalancing of the economy towards domestic consumption and services is struggling to materialize, China has nevertheless seen its tra... Lire la suite

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Input costs and competitiveness in France, Germany and Italy

Price dynamics in sectors sheltered from international competition, particularly in services, directly affects the competitiveness of manufacturing firms through the cost of the inputs used in their production. Faced with dynamic input costs, manufacturers tend to squeeze their margins in order to maintain their competitiveness vis-à-vis foreign competitors. This was the case in France and Italy i... Lire la suite

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The Impact of Oil Prices on the US Economy

Since the late 2000s, the development of unconventional drilling techniques has greatly increased oil and gas production in the United States. The total net effect of higher oil prices on U.S. activity would remain negative despite the shale revolution. The decline in household purchasing power due to higher fuel prices would only be partly offset by the strong increase in investment in the oil an... Lire la suite

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How economic instruments can help fight air pollution

In France, the concentration of certain local air pollutants (in particular, fine particles, nitrogen dioxide and ozone) remains above regulatory thresholds. All sectors contribute to this, in particular heating and transport. Reducing this pollution requires a combination of economic incentives, regulatory measures and the development of alternatives, supporting low-income households and business... Lire la suite

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Productivity and environmental impact of farms according to their size

An analysis is proposed to illustrate the link between farm size on the one hand and farm productivity and environmental impact on the other, for beef and arable farms. On average, large farms appear to be more productive. The environmental impact per hectare does not seem to depend significantly on size for crop farms, but seems to be more unfavourable for large beef farms.... Lire la suite

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Improved GDP nowcasting using large datasets

There is a wealth of economic data available to forecast GDP growth in real time (more than a thousand in this study). To make the most of this wealth, "modern" methods, some of which are based on artificial intelligence, provide an interesting perspective. For example, random forests and dynamic factor models are more efficient at predicting GDP at the beginning of a quarter than some traditional... Lire la suite