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World Economic Outlook in Autumn 2025: Global Economy Hampered by an Adverse Trade Environment

Rédigé par : French Treasury (DG Trésor) International Forecasting Teams

The global economic outlook has been revised downwards from spring forecasts as the global economy continues to reel from US tariffs and an uncertain environment. Growth trends are set to vary among advanced economies, while growth is expected to slow down in emerging economies which should continue nonetheless to drive global growth. Trade policy is still the main downside risk to the economic fo... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Eco

The Attention Economy in the Digital Age

Rédigé par : Solal Chardon-Boucaud

Digital firms in the attention economy use business models that monetise consumer attention. Although this generates economic activity, it has negative externalities for users and society that can affect GDP (e.g. due to a decline in cognitive abilities). To reduce these externalities, regulators have several options at their disposal, such as reining in the most harmful features of platforms.... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Eco

Review of the French Government’s Economic Forecasts for 2024

Rédigé par : Jacques Le Chevallier, Laura Lindegaard, Manon Neau

Amid the post-COVID return to economic normalcy in the summer of 2023, in drafting the 2024 Budget Bill the government projected that GDP growth would bounce back to 1.4%. A series of new external shocks (deterioration in the international environment, rising interest rates and uncertainty) ultimately penalised 2024 growth recovery, which was weaker than expected overall (+1.2%).... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Eco

Air Transport Pricing and Taxation

Rédigé par : Alexia Litschgy

Air transport contributes to France’s economic activity but generates substantial negative externalities, especially climate-related ones. It is subject to specific pricing at national, European and international levels. This paper compares the external costs and pricing arrangements in order to assess coverage of these costs by existing instruments. It flags up average under-pricing for use, part... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Eco

Coordinating Fragmented Creditors to Restructure Sovereign Debt: the Case of Sri Lanka

Rédigé par : Agathe Madeline, Caroline Miller

Following Sri Lanka’s default on its external debt in April 2022, official bilateral creditors developed an original coordination mechanism to restructure the country’s debt. France, India and Japan co-chaired an ad-hoc Official Creditor Committee including the Paris Club, India and Hungary. At the same time, a flexible coordination arrangement with China and regular discussions with private credi... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Eco

Wage Trajectories of French Minimum Wage Earners

Rédigé par : Rania Benyamina, Chloé Stutzmann

In France, wage trajectories of minimum wage earners, i.e. employees earning less than 1.1 times the statutory minimum wage, are very diverse. Half of them experienced upward wage mobility between 2013 and 2019. However, a minority remained durably close to the statutory minimum wage , and some categories of individuals were more likely than others to remain at this wage level: women, clerical sta... Lire la suite

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IMF Governance and the 16th General Review of Quotas

Rédigé par : Thibaut Houriez, Philippe Wen, Jeanne Louffar

The International Monetary Fund’s governance is based on a system of quotas determining the financial contribution each country is required to make to the IMF, its voting rights, and the number of special drawing rights it receives in general allocations. Today, quota distribution is a major challenge, with emerging countries calling for quota realignment that would reflect their increasing relati... Lire la suite

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The Distribution of Income Generated in France Between Labour and Capital

Rédigé par : Charles Gendre, Yann Thommen

In France, the share of labour-related expenditure in the value added of non-financial corporations has been relatively stable since 1990, as has that of net wages. This stability masks changes that occurred in phases and which were connected, inter alia, with economic shocks and tax reform. The capital share has also been stable with an increase in dividends being offset by a fall in interest pai... Lire la suite

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The Consequences of Regulating Mortgage Lending Conditions

Rédigé par : Stéphane Frachot, Alisée Koch

In response to rising mortgage debt for households, regulation of mortgage lending conditions for households was introduced in France by the Higher Council for Financial Stability. An assessment has shown that this measure, which became binding in 1 January 2022, has reduced the average DSTI ratio while increasing the average mortgage maturity. However, the effect on property prices has been limit... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Eco

World Economic Outlook in Spring 2025 Growth Amid Global Turbulence

Rédigé par : French Treasury (DG Trésor) International Forecasting Teams

Rising tariffs are projected to hinder global economic growth and trade in 2025 and 2026. Emerging economies are expected to continue driving global growth, while advanced economies gain support from monetary easing policies. Trade policy developments are the primary downside risk to the economic forecast.... Lire la suite

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