Despite major uncertainty in summer 2022, when the 2023 Budget Bill was being drafted, the French Treasury forecast GDP growth of 1.0%, almost matching the final estimate from INSEE (0.9%). The scenario’s key assumptions, in particular an uninterrupted energy supply and an upturn in aircraft manufacturing and electricity generation, were confirmed. The 2024 Budget Bill forecast for GDP growth for... Lire la suite
The structure of the artificial intelligence value chain is a determinant of the innovation landscape. Tech giants play a major role in this landscape given their presence across the value chain. Although new entrants are challenging this status quo, it raises questions about economic efficiency, fair competition and sovereignty. France has major competitive advantages in this race, including data... Lire la suite
Limiting global warming to 1.5°C, as laid down in the Paris Agreement, and adapting to its impacts requires financing known as “climate finance”. Every year, France along with other developed countries provide this finance to developing countries to assist them in implementing this agreement and to attain the annual $100bn goal. This target, which ends in 2025, was renegotiated at COP29.... Lire la suite
China’s decline in growth is characterised by growing imbalances between the prioritisation of industry and investment on one hand and low consumption and the property crisis on the other. While this situation is reminiscent of 1990s Japan, which suffered a weak growth rate and low inflation, China’s economic slowdown could be less severe if its growth model is rebalanced.... Lire la suite
The energy transition is expected to involve use of mineral-intensive technologies, with high demand for certain so-called “critical” or “strategic” minerals such as lithium, copper and rare-earth elements. In the short term, the global supply of these minerals should be sufficient to meet shifts in demand, even though the value chain is heavily concentrated, particularly in China. The possibility... Lire la suite
The standard of living among farm households is close to the national average. However, this headline figure masks both a higher workload and sharp income disparities. Farm income varies according to farm size and type. Climatic conditions and global market volatility are also major sources of year-to-year income instability, which is partially offset by subsidies.... Lire la suite
DG Trésor predicts that global growth will reach 3.2% in 2024 and 3.4% in 2025. Increasing activity reflects the impact of monetary easing and the rebound in trade. Global activity is projected to be driven primarily by emerging economies despite the slowdown in China. In advanced countries, growth is envisaged to remain strong in the United States and more moderate in the euro area. Geopolitical... Lire la suite
The series of crises from 2020 to 2023 has impacted France’s GDP and its growth drivers. The diminished performance of existing nowcasting models required alternative models to be developed. These alternative models show that supply factors became predominant determinants of French GDP growth in the recent period, corroborating our analysis of business outlook survey data.... Lire la suite
Every year, around 15% to 20% of new constructions are started even though there has been an at-least equivalent increase in the number of dwellings that have been vacant for more than two years in the same municipality. This constitutes a non-negligible stock to address both housing needs and to fight urban sprawl, depopulation of town centres and land take.... Lire la suite
Since the 1990s, Nordic countries have raised their carbon taxes and at times introduced double pricing (carbon tax and ETS allowances) with a view to achieving their national climate targets. Support measures (offsetting to preserve purchasing power, subsidies, tax exemptions) have also been implemented which have encouraged ambitious industrial solutions (low-carbon steel, bioenergy, electrifica... Lire la suite