Tresor-Economics

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Two decades of economic transformation in China

The Chinese growth model, largely financed by the indebtedness of companies and local authorities, has led to strong internal imbalances (excessive debt, unstable real estate sector, fragile banking system). Although, despite the reforms implemented since 2016, the rebalancing of the economy towards domestic consumption and services is struggling to materialize, China has nevertheless seen its tra... Lire la suite

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Input costs and competitiveness in France, Germany and Italy

Price dynamics in sectors sheltered from international competition, particularly in services, directly affects the competitiveness of manufacturing firms through the cost of the inputs used in their production. Faced with dynamic input costs, manufacturers tend to squeeze their margins in order to maintain their competitiveness vis-à-vis foreign competitors. This was the case in France and Italy i... Lire la suite

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The Impact of Oil Prices on the US Economy

Since the late 2000s, the development of unconventional drilling techniques has greatly increased oil and gas production in the United States. The total net effect of higher oil prices on U.S. activity would remain negative despite the shale revolution. The decline in household purchasing power due to higher fuel prices would only be partly offset by the strong increase in investment in the oil an... Lire la suite

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How economic instruments can help fight air pollution

In France, the concentration of certain local air pollutants (in particular, fine particles, nitrogen dioxide and ozone) remains above regulatory thresholds. All sectors contribute to this, in particular heating and transport. Reducing this pollution requires a combination of economic incentives, regulatory measures and the development of alternatives, supporting low-income households and business... Lire la suite

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Productivity and environmental impact of farms according to their size

An analysis is proposed to illustrate the link between farm size on the one hand and farm productivity and environmental impact on the other, for beef and arable farms. On average, large farms appear to be more productive. The environmental impact per hectare does not seem to depend significantly on size for crop farms, but seems to be more unfavourable for large beef farms.... Lire la suite

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Improved GDP nowcasting using large datasets

There is a wealth of economic data available to forecast GDP growth in real time (more than a thousand in this study). To make the most of this wealth, "modern" methods, some of which are based on artificial intelligence, provide an interesting perspective. For example, random forests and dynamic factor models are more efficient at predicting GDP at the beginning of a quarter than some traditional... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 253 - French exports of goods to the EU

France is Europe's 3rd largest exporter to the EU, despite a decline since 2000. Enlargement towards the East has indeed favoured the countries located more in the centre of Europe. France also experienced a deterioration in its cost competitiveness and its positioning in the range in the 2000s, while strengthening its positions in aeronautics and certain service sectors. Measures taken in recent... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 252 - Use of macroeconomic modelling in public policy evaluation

Macroeconomic models are used to forecast spontaneous economic developments or to assess the effects of a reform on variables such as employment or GDP. The Mésange model, co-developed by the DG Treasury and INSEE, is used to assess ex ante the macroeconomic effect of reforms and thus assist in the development of public policies. This type of model is based on theoretical assumptions and empirical... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 251 - Gender budgeting in France

Despite the efforts made over the past decade in many countries to promote equality between women and men, inequalities persist, particularly in the labour market. Some public policies have a differentiated impact on men and women and can create and amplify inequalities, or on the contrary reduce them. Gender budgeting consists of explicitly taking into account the objective of equality between wo... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 250 - Digital platforms and competition

The dominant position of certain major digital platforms, and their role as intermediaries in certain markets, raises increasing concerns about their ability to restrict competition in and for these markets. Faced with these issues, a strengthening of competition policy and the introduction of specific regulatory tools appear desirable.... Lire la suite