Tresor-Economics

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World Economic Outlook in Autumn 2023: The Economy is Holding Out Against Rising Interest Rates

Global economic activity should hold up better in 2023 than forecast in the spring, but growth should be below its pre-crisis average in both 2023 and 2024. While activity in some economies should continue to benefit from catch-up effects, growth in advanced countries should be held back by the rise in financing costs. In the emerging countries, economic activity is likely to remain dynamic, despi... Lire la suite

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The Market for Safe Assets

The holding and market of certain so-called safe assets play an essential role in financial stability. The definition of these assets is not consensual, as various qualities can contribute to the safety offered by a financial security: countercyclicality, liquidity, credit quality and stability. The study identifies a set of securities that play the role of safe assets according to these criteria... Lire la suite

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Public Deficit on Target in 2022 Despite the Energy Crisis

The 2022 public deficit stood at 4.7% of GDP, which was similar to the target stipulated in the 2022 Budget Bill drafted in the third quarter of 2021. This Bill could not foresee either the scale of the 2022 energy shock nor that of the measures implemented to support households and businesses. On the other hand, the capacity to revise forecasts rapidly and determined adherence to deficit commitme... Lire la suite

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What Factors Could Drive the Reorganisation of Global Value Chains?

While recent crises have been interpreted as signalling the end of globalisation, trade continues to grow and goods are travelling as far as before. Globalisation is, however, taking on a new form: the composition and geography of trade have changed. These changes are likely to intensify owing to companies’ strategies to secure their supply chains, climate change, various government policies and g... Lire la suite

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Emerging Economies and Climate Change

Despite being less responsible for climate change, emerging countries are more vulnerable to its effects than their advanced counterparts. Countries located in tropical areas will be more impacted by the physical effects of climate change, while the sectoral structure of African and Asian countries is set to amplify their economic sensitivity. Adaptive capacity varies from country to country and i... Lire la suite

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China's Public Finances: Short-Term Risks and Structural Issues

China’s public finances are organised in a complex and opaque manner, and are structured into various accounts with unclear scopes, along with off-balance sheet commitments. The important role of public investment in China's growth has resulted in high debt levels for local governments. In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, local finances are at risk, which has made far-reaching reforms all the mo... Lire la suite

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Japan's Growth Drivers

Japan’s growth, which was very strong until the 1990s, is now being reined in by ageing capital and a shrinking population. The country is addressing these issues and is banking on an increase in productivity to reignite growth. In this respect, it has significant headroom both as regards the digital transition and in terms of structural changes to the labour market.... Lire la suite

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World Economic Outlook in Spring 2023: The Economy Reaches Its Trough

The economy is facing mixed prospects in the international environment: while buoyed by recovery plans in Europe and falling commodity prices, it also has sticky core inflation and an uncertain geopolitical climate to contend with. World growth is projected to slow in 2023 and rebound moderately in 2024. With the exception of the United Kingdom, advanced economies should avoid a recession, and eme... Lire la suite

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The Expected Benefits of the European Recovery Plans Introduced in the Wake of the COVID-19 Pandemic

European Union Member States agreed on an unprecedented joint response based on common debt to support the post-COVID-19 recovery. The European recovery is expected to foster the convergence in living standards within the EU, and support innovation, productive potential and the reduction of structural unemployment. It will also help take up the challenge of the green and digital transitions.... Lire la suite

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How Does the European Union’s Carbon Market Impact Firm Productivity?

The European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) was created in 2005 to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from emitting sectors in the EU. Its impact on productivity is unclear, however, as it imposes constraints on production processes. This paper shows that the EU ETS was not detrimental to firm productivity from 2005 to 2017, despite heterogeneous effects depending on factors such as a firm’s... Lire la suite