Tresor-Economics

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The EU Single Market, a Driver for Economic and Trade Integration

The single market is the world’s largest developed market, in which Member States enjoy close economic relations. The market has helped to promote innovation and ramp up productivity and GDP, as well as bring convergence within the European Union. The single market has not led to increased relative specialisation of EU Member States. In the period from 1984 to 2019, their goods’ export structures... Lire la suite

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Intra-EU Mobility of Persons

The European Union (EU) is building a common market and European citizenship based on the principle of free movement. The EU’s enlargement has allowed for an increase in intra-EU mobility. The removal of barriers to mobility has underpinned labour productivity within the EU and the economic integration of its Member States. There are still obstacles to mobility such as linguistic and cultural diff... Lire la suite

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How Dependent Are Emerging Market Economies on China's Growth?

Emerging economies, especially Asian countries and commodity exporters, are the most vulnerable to the structural slowdown in Chinese growth, due to their high degree of trade and financial dependence on China (loans, FDI). They are expected to be affected by falling Chinese demand and the resulting impact on commodity prices, as well as by gradual, ongoing cuts to Chinese financing.... Lire la suite

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Italy and its Demographic Challenge

Italy could see a 20% decline in its population by 2070 as a result of its severe natural decrease. A dwindling and ageing population is hampering GDP growth and putting public finances and public debt sustainability under pressure. Measures – whose outcomes are as yet unclear – have been taken to mitigate the impact of unfavourable demographic trends, while the changes to the pension system for 2... Lire la suite

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Interest Rates, Growth and Public Debt Sustainability

The trajectory of public debt as a percentage of GDP depends on the accumulation of annual primary public balances and the spread between interest rates and growth rates. Historically, in France and in the major advanced countries, this gap has been highly volatile, alternating between positive and negative periods. Analysis of the conditions that have enabled debt ratios to be reduced in the past... Lire la suite

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The Dual Income Tax System in Sweden

Sweden was the first country to adopt a dual income tax system, with the progressive taxation of earned income and the flat-rate tax for capital income, under the 1991 tax reform. This reform, which set out to lower taxes and broaden tax bases, has had a positive long-term impact on business investment and labour supply. It was then followed by a significant cut in aggregate tax and social securit... Lire la suite

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World Economic Outlook in Autumn 2023: The Economy is Holding Out Against Rising Interest Rates

Global economic activity should hold up better in 2023 than forecast in the spring, but growth should be below its pre-crisis average in both 2023 and 2024. While activity in some economies should continue to benefit from catch-up effects, growth in advanced countries should be held back by the rise in financing costs. In the emerging countries, economic activity is likely to remain dynamic, despi... Lire la suite

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The Market for Safe Assets

The holding and market of certain so-called safe assets play an essential role in financial stability. The definition of these assets is not consensual, as various qualities can contribute to the safety offered by a financial security: countercyclicality, liquidity, credit quality and stability. The study identifies a set of securities that play the role of safe assets according to these criteria... Lire la suite

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Public Deficit on Target in 2022 Despite the Energy Crisis

The 2022 public deficit stood at 4.7% of GDP, which was similar to the target stipulated in the 2022 Budget Bill drafted in the third quarter of 2021. This Bill could not foresee either the scale of the 2022 energy shock nor that of the measures implemented to support households and businesses. On the other hand, the capacity to revise forecasts rapidly and determined adherence to deficit commitme... Lire la suite

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What Factors Could Drive the Reorganisation of Global Value Chains?

While recent crises have been interpreted as signalling the end of globalisation, trade continues to grow and goods are travelling as far as before. Globalisation is, however, taking on a new form: the composition and geography of trade have changed. These changes are likely to intensify owing to companies’ strategies to secure their supply chains, climate change, various government policies and g... Lire la suite