Rising tariffs are projected to hinder global economic growth and trade in 2025 and 2026. Emerging economies are expected to continue driving global growth, while advanced economies gain support from monetary easing policies. Trade policy developments are the primary downside risk to the economic forecast.... Lire la suite
The series of crises from 2020 to 2023 has impacted France’s GDP and its growth drivers. The diminished performance of existing nowcasting models required alternative models to be developed. These alternative models show that supply factors became predominant determinants of French GDP growth in the recent period, corroborating our analysis of business outlook survey data.... Lire la suite
DG Trésor projects that the global economy will expand by 3.1% in 2024 and 3.2% in 2025. This growth rate is slightly higher than expectations from the summer but remains below the pre-pandemic average, underscoring the effects of monetary tightening and geopolitical uncertainties. Growth in advanced economies is expected to be moderate, with significant disparities among countries. Meanwhile, eme... Lire la suite