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World Economic Outlook in Autumn 2025: Global Economy Hampered by an Adverse Trade Environment

Rédigé par : French Treasury (DG Trésor) International Forecasting Teams

The global economic outlook has been revised downwards from spring forecasts as the global economy continues to reel from US tariffs and an uncertain environment. Growth trends are set to vary among advanced economies, while growth is expected to slow down in emerging economies which should continue nonetheless to drive global growth. Trade policy is still the main downside risk to the economic fo... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Eco

World Economic Outlook in Spring 2025 Growth Amid Global Turbulence

Rédigé par : French Treasury (DG Trésor) International Forecasting Teams

Rising tariffs are projected to hinder global economic growth and trade in 2025 and 2026. Emerging economies are expected to continue driving global growth, while advanced economies gain support from monetary easing policies. Trade policy developments are the primary downside risk to the economic forecast.... Lire la suite

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Nowcasting French GDP Growth During Exceptional Periods

Rédigé par : Lina Bourassi, Antoine Claisse, Louise Phung

The series of crises from 2020 to 2023 has impacted France’s GDP and its growth drivers. The diminished performance of existing nowcasting models required alternative models to be developed. These alternative models show that supply factors became predominant determinants of French GDP growth in the recent period, corroborating our analysis of business outlook survey data.... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Eco

World Economic Outlook in Spring 2024 Moderate and Uneven Growth

Rédigé par : Équipes chargées des prévisions internationales

DG Trésor projects that the global economy will expand by 3.1% in 2024 and 3.2% in 2025. This growth rate is slightly higher than expectations from the summer but remains below the pre-pandemic average, underscoring the effects of monetary tightening and geopolitical uncertainties. Growth in advanced economies is expected to be moderate, with significant disparities among countries. Meanwhile, eme... Lire la suite