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Elasticity

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Review of Public Finance Forecasts for 2023 and 2024

Rédigé par : Loïc Janin, Christophe Toussaint

The 2023 general government deficit stood at −5.5% of GDP compared to a forecast of −4.9% in the 2023-2027 Public Finance Planning Act. This difference essentially concerns aggregate taxes and social security contributions, for which the elasticity in relation to economic growth was at a record low. This decline has also significantly affected the projection for 2024 which was revised to −6.1% in... Lire la suite

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Public Deficit on Target in 2022 Despite the Energy Crisis

Rédigé par : Victor Prieur, Jean Sol Macher, Elsa Trezeguet

The 2022 public deficit stood at 4.7% of GDP, which was similar to the target stipulated in the 2022 Budget Bill drafted in the third quarter of 2021. This Bill could not foresee either the scale of the 2022 energy shock nor that of the measures implemented to support households and businesses. On the other hand, the capacity to revise forecasts rapidly and determined adherence to deficit commitme... Lire la suite