Amid the post-COVID return to economic normalcy in the summer of 2023, in drafting the 2024 Budget Bill the government projected that GDP growth would bounce back to 1.4%. A series of new external shocks (deterioration in the international environment, rising interest rates and uncertainty) ultimately penalised 2024 growth recovery, which was weaker than expected overall (+1.2%).... Lire la suite
Despite major uncertainty in summer 2022, when the 2023 Budget Bill was being drafted, the French Treasury forecast GDP growth of 1.0%, almost matching the final estimate from INSEE (0.9%). The scenario’s key assumptions, in particular an uninterrupted energy supply and an upturn in aircraft manufacturing and electricity generation, were confirmed. The 2024 Budget Bill forecast for GDP growth for... Lire la suite
The series of crises from 2020 to 2023 has impacted France’s GDP and its growth drivers. The diminished performance of existing nowcasting models required alternative models to be developed. These alternative models show that supply factors became predominant determinants of French GDP growth in the recent period, corroborating our analysis of business outlook survey data.... Lire la suite