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Forecasting

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Oil, a Key Economic Variable That Remains Difficult to Forecast

Rédigé par : Lina Bourassi, Eléa Giraud, Paul Mainguet*

Oil is an essential resource for the global economy, especially for transportation and industry. Oil prices are driven by the balance between global supply and demand, as well as by market expectations. The 2026 conflict in the Middle East illustrates the influence of geopolitical tensions on oil prices, which affect the global economy primarily through the inflation channel.... Lire la suite

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Nowcasting French GDP Growth During Exceptional Periods

Rédigé par : Lina Bourassi, Antoine Claisse, Louise Phung

The series of crises from 2020 to 2023 has impacted France’s GDP and its growth drivers. The diminished performance of existing nowcasting models required alternative models to be developed. These alternative models show that supply factors became predominant determinants of French GDP growth in the recent period, corroborating our analysis of business outlook survey data.... Lire la suite