Tresor-Economics - Trésor Info | Direction générale du Trésor

Trésor-Eco

Trésor-Economics No. 16 - Do financial variables yield greater insight into the economic situation in real time?

Rédigé par : DG Trésor 05 juillet 2007

There are several methods for dating past economic cycles, but it is harder to define where we are in the cycle in real time. The difficulty in detecting turning points sufficiently quickly can give rise to substantial forecasting errors, generally common to the entire forecasting community.The practice, in that case, consists in consulting business tendency surveys and, in the past ten years or s... Lire la suite

Trésor-Eco

Trésor-Economics No. 15 - Do interest rates help to predict exchange rates?

Rédigé par : DG Trésor 28 juin 2007

The link between exchange rates and interest rates is a recurring topic of discussion among economists and financial analysts, with particular emphasis on how a monetary policy shift affects the exchange rate.This article focus on the relationship referred to as uncovered interest-rate parity (UIP). UIP formalises the following principle: when two currencies' relative interest rates diverge substa... Lire la suite

Trésor-Eco

Trésor-Economics No. 14 - Labor market adjustment dynamics and labor mobility within the euro area

Rédigé par : DG Trésor 11 mai 2007

Moving to a single currency has reduced trading costs, enhanced price transparency and increased financial stability. However, the euro area is sometimes subject to asymmetric shocks. In order to respond to these shocks, EMU Member States can rely on appropriate national policies, or other real dynamics adjustment mechanisms, such as real competitiveness adjustments or the mobility of production f... Lire la suite

Trésor-Eco

Trésor-Economics No. 13 - Examining the impact of Basel II on the supply of credit to SMEs

Rédigé par : DG Trésor 20 avril 2007

To safeguard against credit risk and prevent a systemic crisis, banks must comply with prudential regulations requiring them to hold a certain amount of capital for each loan granted. The Basel II Capital Accord has reformed the procedures for calculating regulatory capital - which now increases with borrower risk - as part of efforts to strengthen the stability of the international banking system... Lire la suite

Trésor-Eco

Trésor-Economics No. 12 - The Global Economic Outlook, spring 2007

Rédigé par : DG Trésor 30 mars 2007

The balance of global growth has shifted since summer 2006 in geographical terms. The United States has been experiencing a soft landing since the middle of last year, under the influence of the housing market downturn, which will probably continue to act as a drag on the economy for much of 2007. Eurozone growth (year-on-year) overtook the United States at the end of 2006, indicating a decoupling... Lire la suite

Trésor-Eco

Trésor-Economics No. 11 - How the new features of globalisation are affecting markets in Europe

Rédigé par : DG Trésor 22 mars 2007

Until the end of the 1990’s, the rapid growth of trade has had only a limited impact on Europe’s labour markets and inequalities, insofar as it mainly affected countries with comparable levels of development. The growing share of the major emerging countries in world trade could change this pattern, notably by pushing the European countries to specialise more: that is what the growth in the share... Lire la suite

Trésor-Eco

Trésor-Economics No. 10 - Distinguishing cyclical from structural components in French unemployment

Rédigé par : DG Trésor 06 mars 2007

The French unemployment rate fall to 8.6% at the end of 2006, its lowest level since 1983. For the year as a whole, unemployment has declined by around 1 percentage point: can we put this fall entirely down to a good economic situation, or does it also reflect structural improvements in the labour market?To answer this question we need to distinguish between cyclical and structural components in t... Lire la suite

Trésor-Eco

Trésor-Economics No. 9 - The patent system in Europe

Rédigé par : DG Trésor 05 février 2007

Several reports published in recent years have highlighted the gap that has opened up between Europe (notably France) and the United States in terms of the number of patents filed. Taking the number of "triadic patents" (filed simultaneously in the United States, Japan and with the European Patent Office), the European Union (EU) filed 35 patents per million head of population versus 66 in the Uni... Lire la suite

Trésor-Eco

Trésor-Economics No. 8 - UK labour market performance

Rédigé par : DG Trésor 19 janvier 2007

UK unemployment has fallen sharply since it peaked at slightly over 10% in 1993, dropping to 4.7% in mid-2005, its lowest level in 35 years. This fall in unemployment may be viewed as exemplary by comparison with the other large European economies. UK labour market performance stands out from that of the eurozone in a number of respects: the decline in unemployment has gone hand in hand with a hig... Lire la suite

Trésor-Eco

Trésor-Economics No. 7 - Firms’ access to bank credit

Rédigé par : DG Trésor 11 janvier 2007

Firms may be denied access to bank loans even if they are willing to pay high interest. This phenomenon - known as "credit rationing" - remains hard to quantify, as credit supply and demand are not directly observable. However, some evidence suggests that credit rationing has been significant in France during the 1990s.A disequilibrium model estimated on French data for the recent period suggests... Lire la suite