Tresor-Economics

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Trésor-Economics No. 8 - UK labour market performance

UK unemployment has fallen sharply since it peaked at slightly over 10% in 1993, dropping to 4.7% in mid-2005, its lowest level in 35 years. This fall in unemployment may be viewed as exemplary by comparison with the other large European economies. UK labour market performance stands out from that of the eurozone in a number of respects: the decline in unemployment has gone hand in hand with a hig... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 7 - Firms’ access to bank credit

Firms may be denied access to bank loans even if they are willing to pay high interest. This phenomenon - known as "credit rationing" - remains hard to quantify, as credit supply and demand are not directly observable. However, some evidence suggests that credit rationing has been significant in France during the 1990s.A disequilibrium model estimated on French data for the recent period suggests... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 6 - Reinterpreting the contribution of foreign trade to growth

The impact of foreign trade on economic activity is usually analyzed by computing the "contribution of foreign to growth". Such an analysis carried on for France emphasises that over the three years from 2003 to 2005, the contribution of foreign trade to growth has been sharply negative.However, the contribution of foreign trade to growth seems too crude an indicator to yield proper insight into t... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 5 - Is the impact of China’s emergence on France as large as currently thought ?

The opening up of the French economy since 1960 has facilitated an enlargment of the range of disposable products and a downward pressure on prices. These developments have benefited consumers and have translated into a larger exposure of French firms to foreign competition. These pressures globalisation has brought to bear on companies, come from both the evolution of competitiveness and from Fra... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 4 - Census of French companies’ establishments abroad

French companies' establishments abroad generated turnover in excess of € 520 billion in 2004, thus exceeding French exports, which totalled 340 billion. A census of these establishments conducted by the French Treasury (DGTPE) reveals a number of pathbreaking observations:As far as the geographic structure is concerned, thecharacteristics are similar to those of French exports. French companies a... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 3 - Business relationships between suppliers and retailers

Relationships between retailers and suppliers are generally non-integrated and vertical, involving a complex blend of cooperation and competition. In the large retail sector, the balance of power has been tilted in the large retailers’ favour over the last few years. This asymmetry is liable to breed market inefficiencies and anti-competitive effects. What is more, it is sometimes suspected by sup... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 2 - Estimates of French medium to long-term potential growth revisited

INSEE recently published new projections of the French working population to 2050. According to these estimates, the number of people in the labour force would continue to rise till 2015 then stabilise at between 28.2 and 28.5 million, whereas in earlier calculations, the labour force was projected to decline as from 2007. This dynamism stems from increased fertility, more abundant immigration, an... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 1 - The global economic outlook in autumn 2006

Growth in the global economy in the first half of 2006 was geographically better balanced than previously: it remained very robust in the emerging countries of Asia, while the euro zone enjoyed a strong domestic demand-led rebound. Growth slackened in both the United States and Japan in the second quarter.Looking ahead, global growth is expected to slow in 2007.  Less accommodating monetary polici... Lire la suite