Tresor-Economics

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China’s Dependence on the Property Sector as an Engine of Growth

After twenty years of dazzling development, the Chinese property sector is facing a major crisis. However, beyond its cyclical aspects, this crisis reflects a loss of steam in the Chinese growth model, which is based on a profoundly unbalanced property sector. The authorities are now faced with a dilemma, between the two imponderables of the structural clean-up of the sector and the cyclical recov... Lire la suite

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Privacy Protection and Competition in the Digital World

The concentration of personal data by digital platforms raises questions about the cross-fertilisation of privacy and competition policies, particularly when personal data becomes a source of market power that can lead to abuse. Faced with these intersecting issues, competition authorities and data regulators are developing collaborations and reflections are emerging on new regulatory methods.... Lire la suite

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The Crypto Boom: Challenges and Risks

Crypto-assets refer to a multitude of heterogeneous assets, which, although they are used relatively little as a means of payment, constitute an increasingly widespread asset class, supported by the development of a financial ecosystem and the emergence of decentralised finance. However, they present various limitations and risks for investors, highlighted by the violent correction episodes that h... Lire la suite

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Decoupling of US and China Value Chains: Challenges for the EU

Since 2017, the US has adopted numerous decoupling measures in response to competitive distortions related to China's industrial policies. In response, China has adopted comparable countermeasures. These measures could affect EU exports to China of goods with US components, and EU exports to the US of goods with Chinese components. France would be among the most exposed EU countries.... Lire la suite

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The Income Balance in France and in the Euro Area

The French income balance, which is a component of the current account like the trade balance in goods and services, is one of the few in the euro area to show a surplus. This surplus is driven by income from investments abroad and by the remuneration of cross-border employees. The health crisis has resulted in a deterioration of the income balance in France, as in the euro area.... Lire la suite

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Impacts of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine on Emerging Economies

The effects of the invasion of Ukraine will be asymmetric for emerging economies. While hydrocarbon exporters benefit from higher prices, African and Middle Eastern countries will be particularly affected by their trade exposure to Russia and Ukraine and their dependence on food imports. These countries are fragile and have little fiscal space to contain inflationary pressures, which exacerbate th... Lire la suite

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Common Ownership and Competition

The holding by the same investor of minority stakes in the share capital of several companies active, and possibly competing, on the same market has developed strongly in recent years. This is known as joint ownership and is linked to the development of institutional shareholding, which makes it possible to reduce the financing costs of companies, but could also, particularly in concentrated marke... Lire la suite

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How Effective Was Remote Working for Managing the COVID-19 Pandemic?

During the health crisis, telework had the dual purpose of preserving activity in companies and protecting the French by limiting contact and mobility. The data available in 2020 and 2021 confirm that regions with more teleworkable jobs made less use of partial activity during the lockdowns and that mobility outside the lockdowns increased less, resulting in less epidemic activity.... Lire la suite

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Analysis of France’s State-Guaranteed Loan Scheme at End-2021

Around €145bn in state-guaranteed loans (SGLs) have been granted to French companies since the beginning of the health crisis. These EGPs have mainly gone to viable companies in temporary need of liquidity, particularly in the sectors most affected by the crisis. The available data show that they have only been partially used. At this stage, the expected net losses represent less than 1% of the vo... Lire la suite

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Senior Employment in France

In France, the employment rate of people aged 55 and over is increasing steadily, but it remains low in comparison with Europe after the age of 60. In addition to a relatively early retirement age, other conditions linked to the labour supply of older people may explain this lower activity: arduousness, weak financial incentives. On the demand side, the gap (real or perceived) between productivity... Lire la suite