The 2023 general government deficit stood at −5.5% of GDP compared to a forecast of −4.9% in the 2023-2027 Public Finance Planning Act. This difference essentially concerns aggregate taxes and social security contributions, for which the elasticity in relation to economic growth was at a record low. This decline has also significantly affected the projection for 2024 which was revised to −6.1% in... Lire la suite
Italy could see a 20% decline in its population by 2070 as a result of its severe natural decrease. A dwindling and ageing population is hampering GDP growth and putting public finances and public debt sustainability under pressure. Measures – whose outcomes are as yet unclear – have been taken to mitigate the impact of unfavourable demographic trends, while the changes to the pension system for 2... Lire la suite
The 2022 public deficit stood at 4.7% of GDP, which was similar to the target stipulated in the 2022 Budget Bill drafted in the third quarter of 2021. This Bill could not foresee either the scale of the 2022 energy shock nor that of the measures implemented to support households and businesses. On the other hand, the capacity to revise forecasts rapidly and determined adherence to deficit commitme... Lire la suite
China’s public finances are organised in a complex and opaque manner, and are structured into various accounts with unclear scopes, along with off-balance sheet commitments. The important role of public investment in China's growth has resulted in high debt levels for local governments. In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, local finances are at risk, which has made far-reaching reforms all the mo... Lire la suite