Global activity would rebound in 2021 as the health situation gradually improves. The United States would catch up in 2021 with the level of activity in 2019, Germany would regain it in 2022, while Spain and Italy would remain below it by that time. World trade rebounds in 2021, supported by the normalisation of industrial production, and trade increases in 2022 with activity. The evolution of the... Lire la suite
The EU plans to introduce a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to tackle carbon leakage more effectively. This phenomenon corresponds to an increase in emissions in the rest of the world as a result of the implementation of more ambitious climate policies, such as carbon pricing, by some countries. A CBAM will enhance the effectiveness of European climate policies, and needs to address lega... Lire la suite
The rapid spread of the Covid-19 epidemic in China, its evolution into a global pandemic and the contraction of activity are a reminder of the vulnerability of economies to infectious diseases. Past epidemics have had clear economic effects through several channels, ranging from a few tenths of a point to several points of GDP depending on their severity. The effects of the current pandemic would... Lire la suite
Achieving sustainable development goals by 2030 requires a significant increase in development financing, which has been made even more difficult by the global health crisis related to COVID-19. This note assesses the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on private capital flows in sub-Saharan Africa and examines options for long-term development financing in the post-COVID-19 period in the countries con... Lire la suite
Poorly managed housing debt poses significant risks to financial stability. In France, household housing debt has doubled since 2004 as a proportion of gross disposable income. This study compares two macroprudential measures. Limiting the effort rate and maturity allows households to adjust their loan requests, while controlling the monthly debt burden. Controlling the debt ratio reduces aggregat... Lire la suite
The high mortality of start-ups in the industrialisation phase ("Death Valley") appears lower in France than internationally. Start-ups' sustained need for external funding makes them vulnerable to "predatory acquisitions", whose aim is to remove the innovation from the target. These acquisitions remain moderate, however (less than 6% of start-up purchases by large groups in France).... Lire la suite
Although recent data confirm the trend of an increase in the number of French people leaving France for other countries over the last fifteen years, emigration rates for France remain among the lowest in the OECD. Working-age people are over-represented among French emigrants, and the latter appear on average to be better educated than the natives who remain in France. The gap between the educatio... Lire la suite
Our economy needs products and raw materials of foreign origin, especially for our industrial production, which can lead to vulnerabilities in the event of supply disruptions. However, an analysis of the concentration of French imports and their potential diversification reveals a limited number of vulnerable products. Security strategies at the level of companies, States and the European Union ca... Lire la suite
Job reallocations between companies contribute significantly to productivity gains in France. These reallocations take place both between permanent companies and through the phenomenon of creative destruction, i.e. the entry and exit of companies. Whereas, until the 2008 crisis, productivity gains were mainly due to permanent companies, creative destruction contributed much more to productivity ga... Lire la suite
Despite a rise in the standard of living that has led to a reduction in poverty, inequalities remain high, particularly between urban and rural areas in terms of access to public services. These inequalities are exacerbated in the context of a marked slowdown in growth since 2011 and limited budgetary room for manoeuvre to support the economy and reduce inequalities. Various protest movements have... Lire la suite