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Trésor-Economics No. 157 - Impact of falling oil prices on the major emerging economies

Rédigé par : DG Trésor

The decline in oil prices affects emerging economies in different ways, having an adverse impact on oil-exporting countries and a favourable impact on oil importers.For oil exporters, lower oil prices mean lower exports in value terms. The loss of oil revenue has an adverse impact on the fiscal balance and, more broadly, on domestic demand as a whole. Depending on the budgetary and monetary policy... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 156 - Deepening the European internal market today: how and why

Rédigé par : DG Trésor

The European internal market has been one of the key goals of the economic and political project of the European Union (EU) since the Treaty of Rome (1957). Its gradual implementation has brought major economic gains and provided momentum for modernising EU economies. The process has promoted strong growth in trade between Member States, followed by closer economic integration. Beyond the lifting... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 155 - Actual and potential growth in China

Rédigé par : DG Trésor

Before the crisis, China enjoyed a period of buoyant growth, driven mainly by capital accumulation. It was able to maintain a high investment-to-GDP ratio thanks to abundant savings, partly a consequence of distortions in factor prices including the exchange rate, wages and interest rates. Productivity gains also contributed to China's outstanding performance, through technological catch-up but al... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 154 - An economic approach to local government reform

Rédigé par : DG Trésor

In 2014, there were 36,681 municipalities in France (36,767 including overseas municipalities), 101 départements and 27 regions. French local-government entities accounted for 40% of the European Union total in 2011.Their economic role is substantial: local governments accounted for 21% of French government expenditure and 60% of government investment in 2014. Their powers are varied and may overl... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 153 - The world economy in the summer of 2015: emerging economies expected to slow global growth in 2015

Rédigé par : DG Trésor

In early 2015, global economic growth slowed, with major disparities between economic areas. The advanced economies continued expanding, albeit at a slightly slower pace than at the end of 2014, but the outlook remains positive. In contrast, growth slowed more sharply in the emerging economies.In the United Kingdom and the United States, growth picked up again in the second quarter, after a tempor... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 152 - French retirement benefit expenditure set to shrink substantially as a share of GDP by 2060, according to European projections

Rédigé par : DG Trésor

Since 2001, the Ecofin Council gave a mandate to the Ageing Working Group (AWG) made up of the Commission and the Member States to update periodically harmonised projections of age-related public expenditure and other expenditures linked to the sustainability of the Member States' public finances (retirement and disability benefits, health care, long-term care, education and unemployment benefits)... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 151 - How closely do business confidence indicators correlate with actual growth?

Rédigé par : DG Trésor

There is a close link between economic growth and the business confidence indicators published by the three organisations that conduct economic surveys in France (INSEE - the French national statistical institute, Banque de France and Markit). All three surveys have "reference thresholds" expressing the balance of optimistic/pessimistic answers. The INSEE and Banque de France set their thresholds... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 150 - Economic sanctions: what have we learned from the recent and not so recent past?

Rédigé par : DG Trésor

The use of economic sanctions as a tool for diplomacy is nothing new. The benchmark study by Hufbauer, Schott and Elliott published in 2007 inventories more than 200 sanctions episodes instituted since the beginning of the 20th century. More recent developments, such as the sanctions imposed against Russia or the upcoming lifting of sanctions against Iran, show that sanctions are still a very topi... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 149 - Will demography disrupt the German economic model?

Rédigé par : DG Trésor

Germany's population decline has already begun, despite the short-term stabilisation provided by immigration. In 2013, Germany's total population of 81.3 million had already fallen by 500,000 since 2003. In very recent years, it has been stabilised by a strong wave of immigration, but whether that pattern will persist remains uncertain, as shown by alternating periods of positive and negative net... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 148 - Value added tax in the European Union

Rédigé par : DG Trésor

VAT is France's highest-yielding tax. According to the national accounts, it generated €144bn in 2013. However, VAT as a share of GDP of total taxation is relatively small by comparison with the 27-member European Union (EU-27), whereas the ratio of total taxation to GDP in France is high (44.7% in 2013).Furthermore, the VAT-to-GDP ratio has decreased since the 1970s in France.The comparatively mo... Lire la suite

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