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Trésor-Eco

Trésor-Economics No. 153 - The world economy in the summer of 2015: emerging economies expected to slow global growth in 2015

Rédigé par : DG Trésor 16 septembre 2015

In early 2015, global economic growth slowed, with major disparities between economic areas. The advanced economies continued expanding, albeit at a slightly slower pace than at the end of 2014, but the outlook remains positive. In contrast, growth slowed more sharply in the emerging economies.In the United Kingdom and the United States, growth picked up again in the second quarter, after a tempor... Lire la suite

Trésor-Eco

Trésor-Economics No. 152 - French retirement benefit expenditure set to shrink substantially as a share of GDP by 2060, according to European projections

Rédigé par : DG Trésor 27 août 2015

Since 2001, the Ecofin Council gave a mandate to the Ageing Working Group (AWG) made up of the Commission and the Member States to update periodically harmonised projections of age-related public expenditure and other expenditures linked to the sustainability of the Member States' public finances (retirement and disability benefits, health care, long-term care, education and unemployment benefits)... Lire la suite

Trésor-Eco

Trésor-Economics No. 151 - How closely do business confidence indicators correlate with actual growth?

Rédigé par : DG Trésor 25 août 2015

There is a close link between economic growth and the business confidence indicators published by the three organisations that conduct economic surveys in France (INSEE - the French national statistical institute, Banque de France and Markit). All three surveys have "reference thresholds" expressing the balance of optimistic/pessimistic answers. The INSEE and Banque de France set their thresholds... Lire la suite

Trésor-Eco

Trésor-Economics No. 150 - Economic sanctions: what have we learned from the recent and not so recent past?

Rédigé par : DG Trésor 29 juillet 2015

The use of economic sanctions as a tool for diplomacy is nothing new. The benchmark study by Hufbauer, Schott and Elliott published in 2007 inventories more than 200 sanctions episodes instituted since the beginning of the 20th century. More recent developments, such as the sanctions imposed against Russia or the upcoming lifting of sanctions against Iran, show that sanctions are still a very topi... Lire la suite

Trésor-Eco

Trésor-Economics No. 149 - Will demography disrupt the German economic model?

Rédigé par : DG Trésor 24 juillet 2015

Germany's population decline has already begun, despite the short-term stabilisation provided by immigration. In 2013, Germany's total population of 81.3 million had already fallen by 500,000 since 2003. In very recent years, it has been stabilised by a strong wave of immigration, but whether that pattern will persist remains uncertain, as shown by alternating periods of positive and negative net... Lire la suite

Trésor-Eco

Trésor-Economics No. 148 - Value added tax in the European Union

Rédigé par : DG Trésor 13 mai 2015

VAT is France's highest-yielding tax. According to the national accounts, it generated €144bn in 2013. However, VAT as a share of GDP of total taxation is relatively small by comparison with the 27-member European Union (EU-27), whereas the ratio of total taxation to GDP in France is high (44.7% in 2013).Furthermore, the VAT-to-GDP ratio has decreased since the 1970s in France.The comparatively mo... Lire la suite

Trésor-Eco

Trésor-Economics No. 147 - Inequalities, poverty and social mobility in the United States: a major economic and social issue

Rédigé par : DG Trésor 11 mai 2015

Income and wealth inequalities in the U.S. have risen since the late 1970s, with only a temporary interruption by the 2007-2009 recession. At the same time, after being cut in half from the late 1950s to the beginning of the 2000s, the absolute poverty rate has increased significantly, and has now returned to the level of the mid-1960s. Finally, in sharp contrast to the traditional view of the Ame... Lire la suite

Trésor-Eco

Trésor-Economics No. 146 - The United Kingdom’s productivity puzzle

Rédigé par : DG Trésor 23 avril 2015

British productivity fell sharply during the 2008 crisis and has barely recovered since then. At the end of 2014, it was still two percentage points lower than in early 2008, and 15 points below the level it would have reached if it had followed its pre-crisis trend growth rate. The UK's persistently low productivity is noteworthy, both from a historical perspective and in comparison to the patter... Lire la suite

Trésor-Eco

Trésor-Economics No. 145 - What is the future of France's healthcare expenditure reimbursement system for patients with long-standing diseases?

Rédigé par : DG Trésor 15 avril 2015

Expenditure for patients suffering from a recognized long-standing diseases(Affection de Longue Durée - ALD) currently represents a major share (€90bn in 2011) of total reimbursed healthcare expenditures. The ALD system itself, which supplements standard reimbursements by granting patients copayment exempt status for all medical procedures and services related to LSDs, costs the national health in... Lire la suite

Trésor-Eco

Trésor-Economics No. 144 - The world economic situation in spring 2015: global activity is accelerating, driven by the advanced countries

Rédigé par : DG Trésor 09 avril 2015

Disregarding quarterly fluctuations, GDP growth steadily gained momentum in 2014 in all the advanced economies except Japan. Nevertheless, substantial divergences persist between the main economic areas.The recovery is forecast to spread to all the advanced economies in 2015, and growth in the euro area should accelerate in 2016. The sharp decline in oil prices is a boost to the global economy. Ho... Lire la suite