Tresor-Economics

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Trésor-Economics No. 132 - An unemployment insurance scheme for the euro area

Pooling a part of unemployment insurance within the euro area would provide a new instrument for solidarity that would in turn be a concrete incarnation of the social dimension of EMU  while enhancing stabilisation of the euro area as a whole. The crisis made it clear that the euro area has no central fiscal instrument that is able to cushion the impact of macroeconomic shocks. Setting up a common... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 131 - How to account for the drop-off in France's per capita GDP in the last 40 years?

Between 1975 and 2012, France's per capita GDP rose more slowly than the average for OECD countries, particularly as compared to the United States and, to a lesser extent Germany and Northern Europe. France ranked above the OECD average in 1975, but as a result of this slower growth, now ranks lower than most of the major developed economies except Italy and Spain. The underlying factors in France... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 130 - A spell of deflation in the euro area?

Inflation in the euro area was 0.7% year-on-year in April 2014, after reaching 0.5% in March - its lowest level since November 2009. Inflation began declining in the summer of 2012, due largely to the contraction and subsequent stabilisation of commodity prices, especially oil, as well as the appreciation of the euro. Stripping out the impact of the volatile components of the CPI, core inflation (... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 129 - Unionisation in France: paradoxes, challenges and outlook

France is unusual in that it has one of the lowest rates of union membership in the OECD (8% in 2010) with one of the highest rates of collective bargaining coverage (93% in 2008). This paradox points up the particularity of the French model of industrial relations, where the collective bargaining extension procedure means that unions and employer associations negotiate for all sector workers rath... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 128 - What next for globalisation?

One of the most remarkable features of the global economy since the early-1990s has been the rapid integration, and consequently growing importance, of the emerging economies, China especially, in the global trading system. This issue of Trésor Economics considers the main medium-term issues and challenges arising from future developments in these economies' supply side on the one hand, and in the... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 127 - Gauging the impact of the french public seed-fund programme launched in 1999

Technology firms' creation requires specific financing tools to take into account the high level of risk associated with their activity. "Tech" start-ups could not significantly rely on bank funding and generally turn to sources such as the entrepreneur's family and friends ("love money"), business angels, or investors who have pooled their capital in funds run by management firms. Seed-funds repr... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 126 - The global economy in the spring of 2014: stronger growth, but new risks

In 2013 global economic growth gradually picked up, but divergences between major economic zones persisted. The growth differential between advanced countries was still stark, with the Anglo-Saxon countries and Japan on one side, and the euro area countries on the other. Growth remained fairly firm in the United States and recovered substantially in the United Kingdom and Japan, on the strength of... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 125 - Are business surveys equally successful to forecast economic activity in France?

As the first available economic indicators, business surveys are at the core of short term economic forecasting. However, since mid-2012, business climate indices and composite indicators, which summarize answers given to survey's various questions (about past activity, further prospects, employment etc.), did not move in concert with French growth. Indeed, while French GDP has been quite resilien... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 124 - Challenges facing the French manufacturing sector

Developed economies are experiencing de-industrialisation due to higher productivity gains in industry and the structural shift in demand towards services. However, its pace varies across countries, partly reflecting manufacturing sector's competitiveness gaps vis-à-vis foreign competitors. Although it possesses a diversified manufacturing base and flourishing multinationals, France is de-industri... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 123 - Emerging economies: heading for persistently slower growth than before the crisis

Economic activity in emerging economies has slowed significatly since 2011, after resisting fairly well to the financial crisis. Stimulus measures in 2009 enabled their activity to bounce back in 2010, but momentum began to flag in 2011. Growth was around 5.5% in 2011-2012, versus 7.5% in the period 2003-2007.This slowdown is partly cyclical, due to a combination of domestic and external factors.... Lire la suite