Tresor-Economics - Trésor Info | Direction générale du Trésor

Trésor-Eco

Trésor-Economics No. 209 - How to explain Germany's strong current account surplus?

Rédigé par : DG Trésor 16 novembre 2017

Germany's current account – the difference between domestic saving and investment – was slightly in deficit in 2000. By 2016, it totalled an unprecedented €261bn, or more than 8% of the country's GDP.Wage moderation during the 2000s accounts for up to a third of this surplus. Slower increases in German wages relative to those in the euro area improved Germany's competitiveness within the single cu... Lire la suite

Trésor-Eco

Trésor-Economics No. 208 - Why is global inflation still so low?

Rédigé par : DG Trésor 30 octobre 2017

Global inflation has declined sharply since 2012 to levels generally below central banks' inflation targets. The uptick over the past year is mainly attributable to a recovery in oil prices, and could be curtailed if higher prices do not feed through significantly to wages. So far, core inflation (excluding food and energy) has remained virtually flat.A long period of low inflation has numerous re... Lire la suite

Trésor-Eco

Trésor-Economics No. 207 - France's trade in value added

Rédigé par : DG Trésor 24 octobre 2017

Foreign trade can be analyzed in terms of the domestic value added contained in exchanges. This enables each economy’s own contribution to its exports to be pinpointed, excluding those of other countries involved in the manufacturing process.In the value added approach, the aggregate trade balances of each country are the usual trade balances, but bilateral balances between countries and sectoral... Lire la suite

Trésor-Eco

Trésor-Economics No. 206 - Potential growth in France

Rédigé par : DG Trésor 29 septembre 2017

Economic assessment often relies on the estimates of potential growth and the output gap, an indicator which describes the position of the economy in the cycle. As these notions allow for the breakdown the general government balance into its structural and cyclical components, they also have a strong bearing on the steering of public finances.The uncertainty surrounding estimates of these concepts... Lire la suite

Trésor-Eco

Trésor-Economics No. 205 - The global economic outlook in September 2017: signals remain upbeat

Rédigé par : DG Trésor 19 septembre 2017

After a two year slowdown, global economic activity is set to gather pace in 2017, with 3.6 % growth, driven by both advanced and emerging economies, before continuing at the same pace in 2018.In the US, growth is likely to be stronger in 2017, thanks to a rebound in private investment, then again in 2018, assuming a fiscal stimulus package is implemented. In Japan, economic activity is expected t... Lire la suite

Trésor-Eco

Trésor-Economics No. 204 - The Argentinian economy - achievements and challenges

Rédigé par : DG Trésor 12 septembre 2017

Since President Mauricio Macri's election in late 2015, Argentina is once again gaining ground, following the 2001 economic crisis and a period dominated by a return to protectionism and creeping isolationism with respect to foreign investment. In a bid to deal with a particularly depressed macroeconomic climate and ward off a new currency crisis, the country successfully implemented difficult eme... Lire la suite

Trésor-Eco

Trésor-Economics No. 203 - Sectoral regulations in France

Rédigé par : DG Trésor 23 août 2017

Many business sectors are subject to government intervention in various forms, such as pricing regulations, professional qualification requirements, and State ownership or State control of companies.These regulations are necessary when free competition does not allow for efficient resource allocation. In these cases, government intervention aims to protect consumers and to ensure the circulation o... Lire la suite

Trésor-Eco

Trésor-Economics No. 202 - Rationale for the new wage momentum in Germany

Rédigé par : DG Trésor 20 juillet 2017

Since the end of the financial crisis, salaries in Germany have increased significantly and real wages are rising faster than productivity.The buoyancy of the German labour market explains this shift in wage dynamics compared to previous trends. The unemployment rate is at a twenty-five year low and is forcing wages upwards.Following fifteen years of wage restraint, the change also reflects distri... Lire la suite

Trésor-Eco

Trésor-Economics No. 201 - Will the recovery in French residential investment last?

Rédigé par : DG Trésor 11 juillet 2017

Residential investment by French households grew strongly from 2000 to 2007, before dropping sharply during the 2008-2009 crisis. After a brief rebound in 2010-2011, it returned to a downward trend. By 2015, it had fallen back to its early 2000s level. This negative performance explains a large share of the GDP growth gap between France and Germany from 2008 to 2015.The 2000-2007 expansion mainly... Lire la suite

Trésor-Eco

Trésor-Economics No. 200 - Clarifying the contributory component of social protection

Rédigé par : DG Trésor 29 juin 2017

In France, much of the high level of government expenditure (57.3% of GDP in 2014) can be explained by the size of government social protection systems. The benefits paid by these schemes account for half of government expenditure (€630bn in 2014, or 29.4% of GDP). Most of this expenditure takes the form of retirement pensions and healthcare insurance payments. Most of these schemes are contributo... Lire la suite