Tresor-Economics - Trésor Info | Direction générale du Trésor

Trésor-Eco

Trésor-Economics No. 213 - The size of central bank balance sheets: a new monetary policy instrument

Rédigé par : DG Trésor 09 janvier 2018

Since the 2008/2009 crisis, the central banks of advanced countries have significantly expanded their balance sheets - not least through asset purchase programmes. With the economic situation improving, the question now turns to possibly reducing balance sheets - beginning in the US - and the economic effects of such a move.In October 2017, the US Federal Reserve started reducing its balance sheet... Lire la suite

Trésor-Eco

Trésor-Economics No. 212 - Trade potentials: Targeting foreign markets

Rédigé par : DG Trésor 20 décembre 2017

DG Trésor has developed a tool to support decision-making and target buoyant markets for French exports. This tool is backed by a quantitative analysis of France's potential exports to its main partners in given sectors.To assess trade potentials, a sector gravity model is used. Somewhat akin to Newton's theory of gravity, the model describes trade flows in terms of the economic and geographic dis... Lire la suite

Trésor-Eco

Trésor-Economics No. 211 - Demographic challenges in the Maghreb countries

Rédigé par : DG Trésor 13 décembre 2017

Following a decline in infant mortality, Maghreb countries entered a demographic transition phase in the 1940s and 1950s. A second phase began in the 1960s with birth planning and the subsequent fall in the fertility rate. The age pyramids of Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia have undergone rapid changes. This situation should be beneficial for them until 2050. The proportion of the population of worki... Lire la suite

Trésor-Eco

Trésor-Economics No. 210 - Globalisation, growth and inequality: implications for economic policy

Rédigé par : DG Trésor 20 novembre 2017

Trade globalisation has accelerated since the early 1980s, generating substantial economic gains globally. However, these gains have not been distributed evenly either across or within countries. Some emerging countries have notably benefited from globalisation and have narrowed their development gap with developed countries, reducing inequality globally.In the developed countries, high-income gro... Lire la suite

Trésor-Eco

Trésor-Economics No. 209 - How to explain Germany's strong current account surplus?

Rédigé par : DG Trésor 16 novembre 2017

Germany's current account – the difference between domestic saving and investment – was slightly in deficit in 2000. By 2016, it totalled an unprecedented €261bn, or more than 8% of the country's GDP.Wage moderation during the 2000s accounts for up to a third of this surplus. Slower increases in German wages relative to those in the euro area improved Germany's competitiveness within the single cu... Lire la suite

Trésor-Eco

Trésor-Economics No. 208 - Why is global inflation still so low?

Rédigé par : DG Trésor 30 octobre 2017

Global inflation has declined sharply since 2012 to levels generally below central banks' inflation targets. The uptick over the past year is mainly attributable to a recovery in oil prices, and could be curtailed if higher prices do not feed through significantly to wages. So far, core inflation (excluding food and energy) has remained virtually flat.A long period of low inflation has numerous re... Lire la suite

Trésor-Eco

Trésor-Economics No. 207 - France's trade in value added

Rédigé par : DG Trésor 24 octobre 2017

Foreign trade can be analyzed in terms of the domestic value added contained in exchanges. This enables each economy’s own contribution to its exports to be pinpointed, excluding those of other countries involved in the manufacturing process.In the value added approach, the aggregate trade balances of each country are the usual trade balances, but bilateral balances between countries and sectoral... Lire la suite

Trésor-Eco

Trésor-Economics No. 206 - Potential growth in France

Rédigé par : DG Trésor 29 septembre 2017

Economic assessment often relies on the estimates of potential growth and the output gap, an indicator which describes the position of the economy in the cycle. As these notions allow for the breakdown the general government balance into its structural and cyclical components, they also have a strong bearing on the steering of public finances.The uncertainty surrounding estimates of these concepts... Lire la suite

Trésor-Eco

Trésor-Economics No. 205 - The global economic outlook in September 2017: signals remain upbeat

Rédigé par : DG Trésor 19 septembre 2017

After a two year slowdown, global economic activity is set to gather pace in 2017, with 3.6 % growth, driven by both advanced and emerging economies, before continuing at the same pace in 2018.In the US, growth is likely to be stronger in 2017, thanks to a rebound in private investment, then again in 2018, assuming a fiscal stimulus package is implemented. In Japan, economic activity is expected t... Lire la suite

Trésor-Eco

Trésor-Economics No. 204 - The Argentinian economy - achievements and challenges

Rédigé par : DG Trésor 12 septembre 2017

Since President Mauricio Macri's election in late 2015, Argentina is once again gaining ground, following the 2001 economic crisis and a period dominated by a return to protectionism and creeping isolationism with respect to foreign investment. In a bid to deal with a particularly depressed macroeconomic climate and ward off a new currency crisis, the country successfully implemented difficult eme... Lire la suite