Tresor-Economics

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Trésor-Economics No. 182 - The debate on secular stagnation: a status report

The concept of secular stagnation was introduced in 1938 by Alvin Hansen, who was concerned that investment might be too low to achieve full employment. After being forgotten for decades, the concept was revived in November 2013 by Larry Summers, who defined it as a situation in which the economy is unable to approach its potential growth rate, for reasons that include the difficulty of sufficient... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 181 - The world economy in summer 2016: moderate but gradually accelerating growth

World growth in 2016 is showing fresh of weakness, having contracted in 2015 on a slowdown in emerging economies. Global activity has been affected by a soft patch in the United States in the first half year. The pace is expected to quicken in 2017 as the US economy gathers momentum and Brazil and Russia gradually pull out of recession.The uncertainty generated by the UK referendum on remaining in... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 180 - Fighting corruption: positive impacts on economic activity, including in developed countries

Corruption has negative consequences for the economy because it affects the level, structure and calibre of public revenue and spending as well as private sector productivity.Indices that measure perceptions of corruption can be used to establish a rich – albeit imperfect and incomplete – country-by-country overview of the situation. Developed countries have lower levels of perceived corruption th... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 179 - What are the economic consequences of obesity and how to tackle them?

Overweight and obese people make up just under half of the French population, but they account for a disproportionate share of healthcare expenditure (56% for outpatient care and probably more for inpatient care). Excess bodyweight has particularly negative consequences for human health, raising morbidity by the heightened risk of chronic disease, and raising mortality, as 13% of deaths recorded i... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 178 - The October 2015 agreement on France's complementary pension schemes for private-sector employees (AGIRC and ARRCO)

France has two points-based pay-as-you-go compulsory complementary pension schemes for private-sector employees: AGIRC covers managerial and executive staff (cadres), and ARRCO covers non-executives (non-cadres). The schemes were established in the second half of the twentieth century and are managed directly by the social partners (trade unions and employer organisations).Without adjustments, bot... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 177 - How effective are hiring subsidies for boosting employment?

A hiring bonus reduces labour costs and increases employment levels. Such bonuses are in line with earlier measures to reduce labour costs implemented in France over the last 20 years, including cuts in social contribution rates, the Competitiveness and Employment Tax Credit and reduced Social contributions under the Responsibility and Solidarity Pact. Unlike the previous measures, the hiring bonu... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 176 - How would the external debt of five major emerging countries respond to financial tensions?

The highly accommodative monetary policy implemented in the developed countries since the 2008 financial crisis has helped to stimulate large capital inflows into the emerging economies by investors seeking higher yields. These flows were reversed when the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates and some emerging economies began to slow.The emerging countries seem to have become less vulnerable... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 175 - Policies to support personal and household services

The personal and household services sector meet specific needs at different points in the human life cycle (early childhood, old age, etc.) in a context of changing lifestyles, brought about in part by women's increasing participation in the labour force. The services include both care services (for children, the dependent elderly or the disabled) and non-care services or household support service... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 174 - Spain's labour market reform: an initial assessment

The economic crisis caused a steep rise in Spain's unemployment rate, from 8% in 2007 to a peak of over 26% in 2013. No other European Union (EU) country reached such levels of unemployment during the crisis except Greece, where the recession was three times as deep as in Spain.Beyond the severe economic downturn, specific characteristics of the Spanish labour market may have helped to drive up un... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 173 - What are the prospects of economic catch-up for the least developed countries of Southeast Asia?

Only eight of the 48 least developed countries (LDCs) listed by the United Nations are located in Asia. This sets them apart among both Asian countries and LDCs. Three–Myanmar, Cambodia and Lao–are located in the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMR) of Southeast Asia. The World Bank includes them among its "Olympians of growth"-countries with some of the highest growth rates over the past 20 years.Are t... Lire la suite