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Trésor-Economics No. 205 - The global economic outlook in September 2017: signals remain upbeat

Rédigé par : DG Trésor

After a two year slowdown, global economic activity is set to gather pace in 2017, with 3.6 % growth, driven by both advanced and emerging economies, before continuing at the same pace in 2018.In the US, growth is likely to be stronger in 2017, thanks to a rebound in private investment, then again in 2018, assuming a fiscal stimulus package is implemented. In Japan, economic activity is expected t... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Eco

Trésor-Economics No. 204 - The Argentinian economy - achievements and challenges

Rédigé par : DG Trésor

Since President Mauricio Macri's election in late 2015, Argentina is once again gaining ground, following the 2001 economic crisis and a period dominated by a return to protectionism and creeping isolationism with respect to foreign investment. In a bid to deal with a particularly depressed macroeconomic climate and ward off a new currency crisis, the country successfully implemented difficult eme... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 203 - Sectoral regulations in France

Rédigé par : DG Trésor

Many business sectors are subject to government intervention in various forms, such as pricing regulations, professional qualification requirements, and State ownership or State control of companies.These regulations are necessary when free competition does not allow for efficient resource allocation. In these cases, government intervention aims to protect consumers and to ensure the circulation o... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 202 - Rationale for the new wage momentum in Germany

Rédigé par : DG Trésor

Since the end of the financial crisis, salaries in Germany have increased significantly and real wages are rising faster than productivity.The buoyancy of the German labour market explains this shift in wage dynamics compared to previous trends. The unemployment rate is at a twenty-five year low and is forcing wages upwards.Following fifteen years of wage restraint, the change also reflects distri... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 201 - Will the recovery in French residential investment last?

Rédigé par : DG Trésor

Residential investment by French households grew strongly from 2000 to 2007, before dropping sharply during the 2008-2009 crisis. After a brief rebound in 2010-2011, it returned to a downward trend. By 2015, it had fallen back to its early 2000s level. This negative performance explains a large share of the GDP growth gap between France and Germany from 2008 to 2015.The 2000-2007 expansion mainly... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 200 - Clarifying the contributory component of social protection

Rédigé par : DG Trésor

In France, much of the high level of government expenditure (57.3% of GDP in 2014) can be explained by the size of government social protection systems. The benefits paid by these schemes account for half of government expenditure (€630bn in 2014, or 29.4% of GDP). Most of this expenditure takes the form of retirement pensions and healthcare insurance payments. Most of these schemes are contributo... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 199 - Strategies to expand the distribution of generic drugs

Rédigé par : DG Trésor

When a pharmaceutical company wants to market a new molecule, it applies for a patent. The patented drug, known as the "originator" drug, is generally protected for between 10 and 15 years. After the patent expires, the pharmaceutical company no longer has the monopoly on manufacturing the drug, and can face competition from generic pharmaceutical firms. In France, whether they are made by generic... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 198 - An examination of inflation forecasts in budget bills

Rédigé par : DG Trésor

Between 2013 and 2016, inflation, within the meaning of the consumer price index (CPI), was almost one percentage point lower than budget bill (PLF) projections. This can either be put down to an increased difficulty in forecasting inflation in an extraordinary economic environment (very low inflation, European Central Bank key interest rates constrained by the zero lower bound, rollout of new ins... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 197 - The benefits of a European approach to green electricity

Rédigé par : DG Trésor

Over the last two decades, the electricity sector has changed significantly. Its deregulation, aimed at boosting efficiency and competitiveness, has led to a reshaping of the incumbent monopolies and the opening up of certain activities, such as electricity supply, to competition. Electricity markets and interconnections between countries have been gradually introduced to exchange electricity.In a... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 196 - A contribution to the work on deepening the Banking Union

Rédigé par : DG Trésor

Creation of Banking Union was spearheaded by the European Council, which opted for this approach on principle in 2012, in response to the financial and sovereign debt crisis, while also bolstering prudential requirements for banks at the same time. Its establishment reflects an in-depth change to the supervision and structure of the European banking system, aiming at better financing the euro area... Lire la suite

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