Following a decline in infant mortality, Maghreb countries entered a demographic transition phase in the 1940s and 1950s. A second phase began in the 1960s with birth planning and the subsequent fall in the fertility rate. The age pyramids of Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia have undergone rapid changes. This situation should be beneficial for them until 2050. The proportion of the population of worki... Lire la suite
Trade globalisation has accelerated since the early 1980s, generating substantial economic gains globally. However, these gains have not been distributed evenly either across or within countries. Some emerging countries have notably benefited from globalisation and have narrowed their development gap with developed countries, reducing inequality globally.In the developed countries, high-income gro... Lire la suite
Germany's current account – the difference between domestic saving and investment – was slightly in deficit in 2000. By 2016, it totalled an unprecedented €261bn, or more than 8% of the country's GDP.Wage moderation during the 2000s accounts for up to a third of this surplus. Slower increases in German wages relative to those in the euro area improved Germany's competitiveness within the single cu... Lire la suite
Global inflation has declined sharply since 2012 to levels generally below central banks' inflation targets. The uptick over the past year is mainly attributable to a recovery in oil prices, and could be curtailed if higher prices do not feed through significantly to wages. So far, core inflation (excluding food and energy) has remained virtually flat.A long period of low inflation has numerous re... Lire la suite
Foreign trade can be analyzed in terms of the domestic value added contained in exchanges. This enables each economy’s own contribution to its exports to be pinpointed, excluding those of other countries involved in the manufacturing process.In the value added approach, the aggregate trade balances of each country are the usual trade balances, but bilateral balances between countries and sectoral... Lire la suite
Economic assessment often relies on the estimates of potential growth and the output gap, an indicator which describes the position of the economy in the cycle. As these notions allow for the breakdown the general government balance into its structural and cyclical components, they also have a strong bearing on the steering of public finances.The uncertainty surrounding estimates of these concepts... Lire la suite
After a two year slowdown, global economic activity is set to gather pace in 2017, with 3.6 % growth, driven by both advanced and emerging economies, before continuing at the same pace in 2018.In the US, growth is likely to be stronger in 2017, thanks to a rebound in private investment, then again in 2018, assuming a fiscal stimulus package is implemented. In Japan, economic activity is expected t... Lire la suite
Since President Mauricio Macri's election in late 2015, Argentina is once again gaining ground, following the 2001 economic crisis and a period dominated by a return to protectionism and creeping isolationism with respect to foreign investment. In a bid to deal with a particularly depressed macroeconomic climate and ward off a new currency crisis, the country successfully implemented difficult eme... Lire la suite
Many business sectors are subject to government intervention in various forms, such as pricing regulations, professional qualification requirements, and State ownership or State control of companies.These regulations are necessary when free competition does not allow for efficient resource allocation. In these cases, government intervention aims to protect consumers and to ensure the circulation o... Lire la suite
Since the end of the financial crisis, salaries in Germany have increased significantly and real wages are rising faster than productivity.The buoyancy of the German labour market explains this shift in wage dynamics compared to previous trends. The unemployment rate is at a twenty-five year low and is forcing wages upwards.Following fifteen years of wage restraint, the change also reflects distri... Lire la suite