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Trésor-Éco n° 233 - Le lien entre inflation et position dans le cycle depuis cinq ans

L'effet du cycle économique sur l'inflation (ou effet Phillips) est significatif : une croissance supérieure de 1 pt à son potentiel une année donnée engendre une hausse de l'inflation de 0,3 pt à partir de l'année suivante.... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 233 - Relation between inflation and the cycle in the past five years

The business cycle has a significant effect on inflation, known as the Phillips effect: growth 1 point higher than its potential in a given year increases next-year inflation by 0.3 point. The correlation between inflation and the economy's position in the business cycle weakened in the 1970s and 1980s, but does not appear to have declined further in the past 15 years.In the past few years, French... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Éco n° 223 - Que nous disent les enquêtes de conjoncture sur la position de l'économie dans le cycle ?

La connaissance de la position de l'économie dans le cycle est importante pour la conduite de la politique économique.... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 223 - What do business surveys tell us about the position of the economy in the business cycle?

Knowing the position of the economy in the business cycle is important for implementing economic policy. It makes it possible, for example, to draw up a medium-term growth scenario: an overheating economy is likely to slow down whereas a demand deficient economy could beat its potential growth rate. Similarly, it makes it possible to identify the structural component of the general government bala... Lire la suite