Tresor-Economics

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Trésor-Economics No. 61 - The "Revenu de Solidarité Active" or earned income supplement: its design and expected outcomes

The introduction of the "revenu de solidarité active" (RSA) or earned income supplement, 20 years after the launch of the "revenu minimum d'insertion" (RMI) or minimum integration income, seeks to correct several shortcomings in the French welfare system. These include a generally inconsistent and confusing maze of transfers and taxes or contributions, weak incentives to return to work, and the in... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 60 - China, "laboratory to the world?"

Technological innovation is increasingly contributing to China's industrial and economic growth. The dominant pattern, in the early stages of the country's opening up starting in 1978, consisted in acquiring technologies from subsidiaries of foreign companies doing business in China.China's own research has flourished since 2000. This is due to an industry-oriented public policy, backed up by the... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 59 - Distributable surplus and share-out of value added in France

The distributable surplus is the share of GDP growth available to improve the remuneration of factors of production. It stems from two sources, namely productivity gains and changes in the amount appropriated by the rest of the world through variations in the terms of trade. Consequently it is the share of growth not allocated to the remuneration of additional factors of production as measured by... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 58 - Survey of household confidence and French consumer spending

Insee's monthly consumer confidence survey allows us to model households' behaviour with regard to their consumption of goods and services. However, this model is weaker when the cycle goes into reverse.The monthly consumer confidence survey administers eleven questions to ascertain households' perceptions of their economic environment. Replies are synthesised in the indicator of consumer confiden... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 57 - Foreclosures in the United States and financial institutions' losses

The rate of mortgage defaults by American households began rising rapidly in summer 2006, precipitating first the property crisis, and then the financial crisis starting in summer 2007. The number of foreclosures has gone on rising since that time, one effect of which has been to depress house prices. Uncertainty over the total number of future foreclosures, meanwhile, is preventing financial inst... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 56 - Unconventional monetary policies, an appraisal

The major Central Banks have cut their key rates sharply in recent months in response to the rapid slowdown in the economy. These conventional monetary policies have shown their limitations, however. In the first place, central banks have little room for manoeuvre: target rates are now between 0 and 0.25% for the Fed, 1.25% for the ECB, and 0.5% for the Bank of England (BoE). Second, despite previ... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 55 - Global economic outlook, Spring 2009

In the fall of 2008, the financial crisis expanded, leading to a sharp contraction of activity by year's end. In countries where growth was largely debt-based, and whose populations are very sensitive to the wealth effect (US, UK and Spain), a steep fall in financial asset prices and tougher financing conditions resulted in a sharp drop in domestic demand. For export-oriented countries (such as Ge... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 54 - The many faces of the French export setup

According to French Customs, some 100,000 French firms export goods, or nearly one firm in 20, This propensity to export is well below that of Germany, close to that observed in Italy, and greater than the figure for the United Kingdom and Spain.A very small number of firms account for the bulk of these exports, with the top thousand exporters representing 70% of total export revenues. While indep... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 53 - Agri-food industry margins in France

The price of agricultural commodities rose sharply between 2007 and mid-2008. The downstream impact of this increase on food prices paid by consumers depends on relations between suppliers and supermarket chains, and on their relative bargaining power. In theory, this is determined primarily by the respective degrees of concentration among suppliers and supermarket chains, together with other fact... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 52 - The Credit Default Swap (CDS) market

One of the earliest signs of the financial crisis in summer 2007 was the plunge in the indices compiled from credit default swaps (CDSs) on a basket of subprime-backed bonds. Recently, the worsening situation in the emerging countries has been perceptible in the steep rise of CDS spreads on their sovereign bonds.Credit default swaps protect investors against credit events on reference corporate or... Lire la suite