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Trésor-Economics No. 64 - How vulnerable are the emerging and developing countries to a drop in migrants' remittances?

Rédigé par : DG Trésor

Emerging countries' payments balances have come under severe pressure since the onset of the crisis in Autumn 2008, as widespread deleveraging has led to massive capital outflows from these countries. In earlier crises affecting the emerging countries migrants' remittances proved resilient, acting as a stable source of financing. This appears to have been less the case in the present crisis, howev... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 63 - The French employment premium and its beneficiaries, 2001-2008

Rédigé par : DG Trésor

The French employment premium, called "Prime Pour l'Emploi" (PPE), was introduced in 2001 to give incentives to people to go to back to work and to provide financial support to low-paid workers.The PPE is a tax credit granted to households that earn below a specific ceiling for taxable income and is based on labor income of each of its members. The PPE-scheme has been substantially revised since i... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 62 - How does today's US crisis compare with the 1990s Japanese crisis?

Rédigé par : DG Trésor

Both the American and the Japanese crises originated in the bursting of speculative bubbles, forcing private agents–households in the case of the USA, and non-banks in the Japanese case–to reduce their debt. In the case of Japan, debt reduction in the midst of a financial crisis triggered a deflationary spiral. A Japanese-style deflationary spiral seems unlikely in the United States, despite simil... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 61 - The "Revenu de Solidarité Active" or earned income supplement: its design and expected outcomes

Rédigé par : DG Trésor

The introduction of the "revenu de solidarité active" (RSA) or earned income supplement, 20 years after the launch of the "revenu minimum d'insertion" (RMI) or minimum integration income, seeks to correct several shortcomings in the French welfare system. These include a generally inconsistent and confusing maze of transfers and taxes or contributions, weak incentives to return to work, and the in... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 60 - China, "laboratory to the world?"

Rédigé par : DG Trésor

Technological innovation is increasingly contributing to China's industrial and economic growth. The dominant pattern, in the early stages of the country's opening up starting in 1978, consisted in acquiring technologies from subsidiaries of foreign companies doing business in China.China's own research has flourished since 2000. This is due to an industry-oriented public policy, backed up by the... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 59 - Distributable surplus and share-out of value added in France

Rédigé par : DG Trésor

The distributable surplus is the share of GDP growth available to improve the remuneration of factors of production. It stems from two sources, namely productivity gains and changes in the amount appropriated by the rest of the world through variations in the terms of trade. Consequently it is the share of growth not allocated to the remuneration of additional factors of production as measured by... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 58 - Survey of household confidence and French consumer spending

Rédigé par : DG Trésor

Insee's monthly consumer confidence survey allows us to model households' behaviour with regard to their consumption of goods and services. However, this model is weaker when the cycle goes into reverse.The monthly consumer confidence survey administers eleven questions to ascertain households' perceptions of their economic environment. Replies are synthesised in the indicator of consumer confiden... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 57 - Foreclosures in the United States and financial institutions' losses

Rédigé par : DG Trésor

The rate of mortgage defaults by American households began rising rapidly in summer 2006, precipitating first the property crisis, and then the financial crisis starting in summer 2007. The number of foreclosures has gone on rising since that time, one effect of which has been to depress house prices. Uncertainty over the total number of future foreclosures, meanwhile, is preventing financial inst... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 56 - Unconventional monetary policies, an appraisal

Rédigé par : DG Trésor

The major Central Banks have cut their key rates sharply in recent months in response to the rapid slowdown in the economy. These conventional monetary policies have shown their limitations, however. In the first place, central banks have little room for manoeuvre: target rates are now between 0 and 0.25% for the Fed, 1.25% for the ECB, and 0.5% for the Bank of England (BoE). Second, despite previ... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 55 - Global economic outlook, Spring 2009

Rédigé par : DG Trésor

In the fall of 2008, the financial crisis expanded, leading to a sharp contraction of activity by year's end. In countries where growth was largely debt-based, and whose populations are very sensitive to the wealth effect (US, UK and Spain), a steep fall in financial asset prices and tougher financing conditions resulted in a sharp drop in domestic demand. For export-oriented countries (such as Ge... Lire la suite

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