Tresor-Economics

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Trésor-Economics No. 44 - Can developments in profitability explain the strength of corporate investment?

French firms have invested heavily since the cyclical trough of 2003, even though their profit margins have remained stable. The investment rate of non-financial corporations was nearly 21% in 2007, matching the peaks reached in the early 1980s and 1990s. In Germany, on the other hand, corporations have relatively little raised their investment rates since their low point in 2004, despite sharply... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 43 - How the French car industry is facing globalisation

France is Europe's second-largest car manufacturer. And yet the slowdown in French car output over the past three years has dragged down the country's GDP growth, its external trade balance, and employment. This retreat primarily reflects changes in French car manufacturers' production arrangements in response to globalisation.While demand is stagnant in the developed countries, car manufacturers... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 42 - How should doctors be paid?

The French 2008 Social Security Budget Bill provides for the possibility of experimenting with new methods of payment for doctors over a period of 5 years. While the image of private practice in France is closely bound up with the concept of fee-for-service payment, this is not necessarily the case elsewhere, where doctors may be salaried employees or receive fixed fees, depending on the country.P... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 40 - The bursting of the US house price bubble

US house prices rose by nearly 60% in nominal terms between 2000 and 2006, before starting to fall in the summer of 2007.The price rise was driven by strong growth in housing demand coupled with relatively scarce supply due to a shortage of available land in the most urban states and, perhaps, weak competition in the construction sector. In addition, housing demand was fuelled by unsustainable fac... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 41 - The role of financial factors in rising agricultural prices

There has been a sharp acceleration in the rate of increase in world prices for agricultural commodities since 2006, coming after fifteen years of rising steadily but moderately. By percolating throughout the food production chain, rising prices of agricultural commodities are contributing to global inflation. It is important to ascertain the causes of this crisis in order to determine the most ap... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 39 - The outlook for pension spending and the role of a reserve fund

Thanks to the abundant baby boom generations, for the past several decades demographics have been highly favourable to pensions funding. This benign situation is coming to an end as these generations reach retirement. Much of the attendant increase in pension spending is set to last, thanks notably to the durable rise in life expectancy.This is because the baby boom initially increased the proport... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 38 - Should structural reforms be coordinated in the euro area?

Within the framework of the Lisbon strategy, the European Union member states have committed to undertaking major structural reforms between 2000 and 2010. The reforms were intended to stimulate supply and demand and therefore deliver large gains in terms of activity in the reforming country.In a monetary union like EMU, structural reforms by one member state affect the economy of other member sta... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 37 - Local Government Headcount

Local government employees (1.7 million people including subsidised jobs, compared with 2.5 million central government employees) account for around a third of civil service jobs in France. Their increase since the beginning of the 1980s accounts for more than half of the increase in total civil service staffing levels and more than two-thirds of growth total central government and local governmen... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 36 - Global economic outlook, spring 2008

Despite adverse economic conditions in the US, with the real estate market downturn and a deteriorating job situation, combined with a shock to commodities and oil prices and the financial turbulence that emerged during the summer, the global economy remained buoyant in 2007 thanks to continuing fairly vigorous growth in Europe and emerging Asia. Growth in the eurozone was sustained mainly by robu... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 35 - Real exchange rate appreciation in the emerging countries

The catching up economies have experienced sharp productivity gains, and their currencies are under pressure to appreciate in real terms against the developed countries' currencies. Until July 2007, in most cases these resulted in significant nominal appreciations, while at the same time we saw rising inflationary pressures. This process, which is essentially structural in origin, has been amplifi... Lire la suite