Tresor-Economics

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Trésor-Economics No. 28 - The conditions for a positive contribution of sovereign wealth funds to the world economy

The so-called Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs), set up by governments enjoying fast growing external revenues in order to manage sovereign wealth separately from official foreign reserves, are already surpassing the hedge fund industry in terms of assets under management. Their aggregate asset portfolio is still much lower than total assets under private management (2 to 3 trillion $ versus 53 trilli... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 27 - Competition within sectors in France

Relative lack of competition is regularly pointed out as a main factor behind weak economic growth. In this study, we build an indicator measuring competition in a given sector of the economy. We then give an estimation of the potential gain in growth and jobs resulting from an alignment of competition in certain sectors with that observed in the best-performing European countries.We can assess th... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 26 - Trends in French public spending: a retrospective survey

The share of public spending in GDP has risen sharply in France over the past fifty years, rising from 35 % at the beginning of the 1960s to over 50 % since the 1990s.The rise has not been a steady one, being especially pronounced when fiscal policy was called upon to stimulate the economy (after the fiscal stimuli of 1974 and 1981). Over the long run, the main driver has been the rapid growth in... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 25 - The impact of the housing slowdown on US consumption

Household consumption has been one of the main drivers of growth in the United States since 2002. However, a number of factors could drag down US consumption looking to 2008, the housing slowdown among them.The housing market has been showing signs of weakness since the end of 2005, but it has been slowing more sharply since mid-2006. Prices are expected to continue levelling off in the coming qua... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 24 - A new database for "measuring" institutions

The pre-eminence of institutional themes in studies on long-term growth, since the mid-1990s, raises the question of how to measure them. Many indicators have emerged aimed at measuring the degree of economic freedom, observance of property rights, the level of corruption, press freedom, etc...The "2006 Institutional Profiles" database, compiled by the French Ministry of the Economy, Finance, and... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 23 - Reduced-rate corporation tax for SMEs

Independent Very Small Enterprises (VSEs) and Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises (SMEs) frequently have greater difficulty than large firms in gaining access to outside financing. On the one hand their access to financing via the markets is very limited. On the other, banks and other lending institutions pay even greater attention to balancesheet quality and to the level of the firm's share capita... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 22 - Are stockmarkets overvalued?

The very sharp rise in equity prices until summer 2007, at a time when the US economy was showing signs of running out of steam, suggested that the markets were being unduly optimistic over earnings growth, especially since the latter already appeared to be very high at the beginning of the year. We consider this question here using the different types of "multiples" used in financial analysis, su... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 21 - The global economic outlook in autumn 2007

The US economy began showing signs of slowing in mid-2006, notably due to the downturn in home building. Because of the specific nature of this shock, its impact on the economies of Japan, the eurozone and the emerging countries stayed limited. Growth remained pretty strong, particularly in the eurozone, fuelled by very buoyant investment and exports. The slowdown in the second quarter of 2007 (in... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 20 - Should we worry about current-account imbalances in a monetary union ?

For the past several years, the eurozone current account has been nearly balanced despite divergent trends in the current accounts of individual member countries. Germany's current account has improved in the recent period, while the current-account deficits of Spain, Portugal, and Greece widened by 8.3, 9.8, and 8.1 points of GDP respectively in 2006.In theory, these current-account imbalances ar... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 19 - The use of economic instruments for environmental policies

Protecting the environment is a major policy challenge for the coming decades. Whether the aim is to combat climate change, preserve biodiversity, or reduce water and air pollution, it is vital to start framing effective environmental policies today. These must achieve a high level of protection while minimising the costs of this effort to society.Governments can draw on a broad array of instrumen... Lire la suite