Tresor-Economics

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Trésor-Economics No. 117 - Are safe assets to become scarcer?

Safe assets, i.e. highly liquid assets with a very low default risk, play a key role in the global financial system. They can, for example, offer a safe haven to investors or be used as collateral in transactions between financial entities.With some of these assets losing their risk-free status in the wake of the recent financial crisis, and with demand for safe assets expected to exhibit structur... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 116 - Residential mobility and labor market adjustement

In France as in most OECD countries, the homeownership rate has been on an upward trend (58.1% of households in 2011, a 5-point rise over 1985). However, home ownership is associated with higher costs of mobility than renting. This being the case, a contraction of the rental market could have negative effects on job match quality. For example, Oswald (1996), followed by other economists, estimates... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 115 - Consolidation without devaluation: does it work?

For countries experiencing a balance of payments crisis or running an excessive current account deficit, devaluing the nominal exchange rate can offer a quick return to competitiveness. However, this option is not available to countries belonging to a monetary union or with a fixed exchange rate regime in place (i.e. that have pegged their currency to a reference currency) without jeopardising sai... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 114 - Why the GDP growth «gap» between the United States and the euro area?

Since the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area intensified in the summer of 2011, the growth paths of the United States and the euro area-which were closely linked beforehand, even during the crisis-have been diverging. In 2012, U.S. growth held firm at 2.2%, whereas the euro area slipped into a new recession, with GDP growth in negative territory at – 0.6%. This divergence is mainly due to the... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 113 - The Shadow Banking System in the United States: Recent Developments and Economic Role

The shadow banking system (SBS) is made up of a multitude of banking and financial operators linked to each other by financial intermediation chains of varying lengths and degrees of complexity.At one end of the financial intermediation chain, deposits are taken from non-financial investors, in the form of shares in money market mutual funds, for example. At the other end of the chain, loans are d... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 112 - The world economy in the spring of 2013: a brighter outlook?

At the end of 2012, international trade and global economic growth stalled, partly because of temporary factors. The main reason growth remained flat in the United States was the fall in military spending and the impact that hurricane Sandy had on output and inventories, which cancelled out the growth of private expenditure. The dip in the United Kingdom's fourth-quarter growth offset the stronger... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 111 - How should one assess short-term economic uncertainty?

Economic activity in the major European Union countries and the United States has been heavily affected on several occasions since 2008 by the decline in confidence among economic players. Uncertainty in the financial markets, measured by market volatility indexes or government-bond spreads, rose sharply in the summers of 2011 and 2012.In cyclical turnarounds, short-term economic growth is often h... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 110 - How have the Hartz reforms shaped the German labour market?

Since 2005, the German economy has created 2.5 million jobs, mostly part-time positions or work on fixed-term or temporary (agency) contracts. This job growth has reduced the unemployment rate by 5 points to the historic low of 5.3% according to the International Labour Office (ILO) definition of unemployment.Germany's structural labour market reforms in the early 2000s are frequently cited as one... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 109 - Asia in 2020: growth models and imbalances

Asia has been by far the most dynamic region of the world over the past decade, powered most notably by China's rapid growth, to the point where it now accounts for more than two-thirds of world growth.In most Asian countries, income levels are progressively converging with those of the advanced economies, and these countries are developing their physical and financial infrastructure. Considerable... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 108 - The shortage of international trade finance during the 2008 crisis: findings and perspectives

International trade finance facilitates more than 80% of flows of trade in merchandise, and is central to the smooth functioning of world trade at a time when manufacturing processes are fragmented across many different countries.In 2009, trade volumes declined for the first time since 1982, as a result of the economic and financial crisis. One of the explanations advanced to account for this cont... Lire la suite