Tresor-Economics

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Trésor-Economics No. 109 - Asia in 2020: growth models and imbalances

Asia has been by far the most dynamic region of the world over the past decade, powered most notably by China's rapid growth, to the point where it now accounts for more than two-thirds of world growth.In most Asian countries, income levels are progressively converging with those of the advanced economies, and these countries are developing their physical and financial infrastructure. Considerable... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 108 - The shortage of international trade finance during the 2008 crisis: findings and perspectives

International trade finance facilitates more than 80% of flows of trade in merchandise, and is central to the smooth functioning of world trade at a time when manufacturing processes are fragmented across many different countries.In 2009, trade volumes declined for the first time since 1982, as a result of the economic and financial crisis. One of the explanations advanced to account for this cont... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 107 - Short-time working schemes in France and Germany: how do they differ?

Large-scale use of short-time working (Kurzarbeit) is frequently advanced as an explanation of German jobs miracle («Jobwunder») during the crisis of 2008-2009. Germany succeeded in holding unemployment to 7.5%, a rise of just 0.2% between 2008 and 2009, whereas in France it rose by 1.6 points to 9.4% in 2009. This system concerned nearly 1.5 million salaried workers in Germany in 2009, as against... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 106 - Should the monetary authorities react to oil price swings?

Oil prices have been rising since June of this year, after falling in the second quarter of 2012 against a background of slowing economic activity and increased supply. The price of Brent has risen 50% since 2007, to $115 per barrel in October 2012.The steep increase in the price of oil in 2008, and again in 2010-2011, has sparked discussion on how the importing countries' monetary authorities mig... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 105 - Lessons for today from Sweden's crisis in the 1990s

Sweden experienced a serious crisis in the early-1990s, with banks collapsing, a sharp drop in GDP, soaring public debt, loss of the country's triple A rating, and a jump in unemployment not seen since the 1930s.This crisis came after a period during which wages and prices had spiralled out of control throughout the 1970s and 1980s, rectified by frequent devaluations. A mismanaged deregulation of... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 104 - The world economy in the summer of 2012: a fragile recovery

The world economic outlook in the summer of 2012 hinges on the resolution of the crisis in the euro area. Monetary policy decisions made at the end of 2011 significantly reduced financial tensions and stabilised growth in early 2012. Recent developments in Spain and in Greece, in the run-up to the elections, have revived some fears and weakened the short-term outlook for the euro area, particularl... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 103 - Does financial globalization affect the external adjustment of national economies?

The net external position (NEP) of a country's economy is the difference between total foreign receivables held by residents and total claims on residents by foreign creditors. An economy with a negative NEP is therefore in debt to the rest of the world. Our study focuses on the adjustment mechanisms that enable an economy to rebalance its NEP.The international financial integration under way sinc... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 102 - The role of Oséo in the financing of innovation

Oséo plays a pivotal role in public policy regarding credit and credit guarantees. With €569 million in aid for innovation in 2011, Oséo is also a major provider of support for innovation. Thanks to its broad scope for action, it is able to support companies throughout their development. For example, Oséo can offer companies aid for innovation programmes in order to develop a new product or for sc... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 101 - Is gold still a safe haven?

Since the inception of the financial crisis, the price of gold has evolved as a safe haven, i.e., an asset whose return is uncorrelated or negatively correlated with the return on another asset in periods of financial market tensions: the performance of gold, the price of which has risen from $650 per ounce ($650/oz) in June 2007 to close to $1650/oz in April 2012, thus contrasts with the performa... Lire la suite

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Trésor-Economics No. 100 - The impact of Japan's earthquake on the global economy

A year ago, Japan's triple disaster-earthquake, tsunami and nuclear accident-had a very strong impact on the Japanese economy. In addition to its dramatic human cost, the catastrophe destroyed production capacity in the disaster zones and caused a power supply shortfall. It also negatively impacted the national and international economy through disruption of production chains-the factor that ultim... Lire la suite