Tresor-Economics - Trésor Info | Direction générale du Trésor

Trésor-Eco

Trésor-Economics No. 125 - Are business surveys equally successful to forecast economic activity in France?

Rédigé par : DG Trésor 03 mars 2014

As the first available economic indicators, business surveys are at the core of short term economic forecasting. However, since mid-2012, business climate indices and composite indicators, which summarize answers given to survey's various questions (about past activity, further prospects, employment etc.), did not move in concert with French growth. Indeed, while French GDP has been quite resilien... Lire la suite

Trésor-Eco

Trésor-Economics No. 124 - Challenges facing the French manufacturing sector

Rédigé par : DG Trésor 19 février 2014

Developed economies are experiencing de-industrialisation due to higher productivity gains in industry and the structural shift in demand towards services. However, its pace varies across countries, partly reflecting manufacturing sector's competitiveness gaps vis-à-vis foreign competitors. Although it possesses a diversified manufacturing base and flourishing multinationals, France is de-industri... Lire la suite

Trésor-Eco

Trésor-Economics No. 123 - Emerging economies: heading for persistently slower growth than before the crisis

Rédigé par : DG Trésor 16 janvier 2014

Economic activity in emerging economies has slowed significatly since 2011, after resisting fairly well to the financial crisis. Stimulus measures in 2009 enabled their activity to bounce back in 2010, but momentum began to flag in 2011. Growth was around 5.5% in 2011-2012, versus 7.5% in the period 2003-2007.This slowdown is partly cyclical, due to a combination of domestic and external factors.... Lire la suite

Trésor-Eco

Trésor-Economics No. 122 - What is the "non-price" positioning of France among advanced economies?

Rédigé par : DG Trésor 07 janvier 2014

It seems hard to explain the divergent export dynamics of advanced economies solely on the basis of global demand and price competitiveness. "Non-price" determinants such as quality, innovation, design, brand image and distribution networks also help to explain export performance.However, standard measures of "non-price" competitiveness - for example, qualitative indicators and econometric methods... Lire la suite

Trésor-Eco

Trésor-Economics No. 121 - Yuan internationalisation. A measured pace strategy

Rédigé par : DG Trésor 26 novembre 2013

The internationalisation of the yuan refers to the process by which both residents and non-residents can use the yuan outside of mainland China for trade and financial purposes. For residents' to acquire yuan-denominated securities outside of China, greater investment opportunities inside mainland China are needed. This in turn means (i) opening up China's capital account, which is still closed fo... Lire la suite

Trésor-Eco

Trésor-Economics No. 120 - A budget for the euro area

Rédigé par : DG Trésor 25 octobre 2013

The sovereign debt crisis that started in 2010 was a reminder of the euro area's design flaws: the area comprises a central monetary pillar (the ECB), but no unified "fiscal pillar", as in a federal state. Although its aggregate fundamentals are fairly sound by comparison with other currency areas, the euro area has experienced an episode of severe macroeconomic and financial instability unseen an... Lire la suite

Trésor-Eco

Trésor-Economics No. 119 - The world economy in the summer of 2013: "the sun is rising in the West"

Rédigé par : DG Trésor 11 septembre 2013

The majority of the advanced economies experienced stronger growth in the third quarter of 2013, whereas there were growing signs of a slowdown in the emerging economies. Business confidence improved on both sides of the Atlantic, leading the Federal Reserve to announce in June a tapering of its quantitative-casing programme in the coming months, ratcheting up tension on the financial markets once... Lire la suite

Trésor-Eco

Trésor-Economics No. 118 - Do high-end goods represent a comparative advantage for Europe?

Rédigé par : DG Trésor 04 septembre 2013

To cope with competition from emerging countries, developed countries have a tendency to specialise in the manufacture of high-end goods. This activity - which includes the very highest segment of so-called "luxury" goods - is strategic for these countries' exports, particularly at a time when domestic demand is weak.It is difficult to accurately and objectively determine which goods should be con... Lire la suite

Trésor-Eco

Trésor-Economics No. 117 - Are safe assets to become scarcer?

Rédigé par : DG Trésor 03 septembre 2013

Safe assets, i.e. highly liquid assets with a very low default risk, play a key role in the global financial system. They can, for example, offer a safe haven to investors or be used as collateral in transactions between financial entities.With some of these assets losing their risk-free status in the wake of the recent financial crisis, and with demand for safe assets expected to exhibit structur... Lire la suite

Trésor-Eco

Trésor-Economics No. 116 - Residential mobility and labor market adjustement

Rédigé par : DG Trésor 02 septembre 2013

In France as in most OECD countries, the homeownership rate has been on an upward trend (58.1% of households in 2011, a 5-point rise over 1985). However, home ownership is associated with higher costs of mobility than renting. This being the case, a contraction of the rental market could have negative effects on job match quality. For example, Oswald (1996), followed by other economists, estimates... Lire la suite