This working paper presents a methodology for assessing the vulnerability of French supplies, which is then applied to metal products that are critical inputs for industry. In particular, the study uses the characteristics of companies importing vulnerable products to measure the exposure of different sectors and the resilience of the productive system to a shortage of these products, based on the stockholding behaviour of these companies.
The Working Paper series presents work carried out within DG Treasury, disseminated with the aim of enlightening and stimulating public debate. The authors are solely responsible for their work.
This working paper introduces a new methodology for assessing the vulnerability of French supplies at the most detailed level of products, and applies it to metal products, that are critical inputs for industries. It builds on previous statistical work on the identification of vulnerable imported products carried out by the French Treasury (Tresor-Economics No. 274). The identification of vulnerable metal products is based on a combination of three criteria: (i) a large share of French imports from outside the EU, (ii) a concentration of imports from a limited number of supplier countries outside the EU and (iii) insufficient production at the EU level. This study is one of the first to use the characteristics of firms importing vulnerable products in order to (i) measure the exposure of the different sectors to these products and (ii) characterize the resilience of firms to a shortage of these vulnerable products according to criteria such as the storage behaviour of these firms.