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The global economic outlook has been revised downwards from spring forecasts as the global economy continues to reel from US tariffs and an uncertain environment. Growth trends are set to vary among advanced economies, while growth is expected to slow down in emerging economies which should continue nonetheless to drive global growth. Trade policy is still the main downside risk to the economic forecast.

2025-09-11T00:00:00+02:00<p>US trade measures have driven the global outlook downwards compared to spring forecasts: global GDP growth is expected to stand at 3.0% in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026, down from 3.3% in 2024.&nbsp;</p> <p>Among advanced economies, growth is set to considerably slow in 2025 and 2026 in the United States, as consumption is adversely impacted by tariff hikes and budgetary cuts. Euro area growth should be driven by a pick-up in consumption following a decline in inflation and by sustained investment as a result of falling interest rates. However, growth is expected to be hindered by trade tensions and the appreciation of the euro. Germany&rsquo;s growth is set to be sluggish in 2025, but should recover in 2026 with the help of fiscal stimulus, while weak growth is expected in Italy in spite of support in the form of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP). Spain&rsquo;s growth is projected to remain far more robust, driven by population growth, dynamic investment and tourism. An expansionary fiscal policy is expected to support the United Kingdom&rsquo;s growth.</p> <p>Most major emerging economies are expected to experience a slowdown in growth in 2025 and 2026: in particular, China&rsquo;s growth is set to falter as a result of trade measures and persistent structural imbalances.&nbsp;</p> <p>Global trade should continue to be hampered by US trade measures, with growth of just 2.1% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026, significantly below its historical average (2.8% from 2015 to 2019). Recovery in 2025, expected as a result of forecasts of tariff hikes for the first half of the year and demand from advanced economies, should be weaker than projected as it has been hindered by a decline in imports from China and India. In 2026, a pick-up in emerging-economy imports is not expected to offset declining US imports.&nbsp;</p> <p>The risks surrounding this scenario are mostly skewed to the downside as the Trump administration continues to threaten to impose new tariffs amid persistent geopolitical tensions.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img class="marge" src="/Articles/8a0b400d-302e-4819-865e-5649bda00a50/images/0dde59cc-5e45-48d9-9b21-3d4a616d34fc" alt="Visuel TE- 370en" /></p>4c6dead0-2f56-49e6-baf9-a158c356ac51

Rising tariffs are projected to hinder global economic growth and trade in 2025 and 2026. Emerging economies are expected to continue driving global growth, while advanced economies gain support from monetary easing policies. Trade policy developments are the primary downside risk to the economic forecast.

2025-03-20T00:00:00+01:00<p>The international scenario, set on 21 February, assumes that the United States will double its existing tariffs on imports from the European Union, China, Canada and Mexico from the 2nd quarter of 2025 onwards. Equivalent countermeasures by these trading partners are also assumed to take effect at the same time. The ensuing turbulence is expected to reduce global GDP growth by 0.1 percentage points (pp) in 2025 and by 0.2 pp in 2026. Similarly, world trade is projected to shrink by 0.2 pp in 2025 and by 0.7 pp the following year.</p> <p>In line with these assumptions, and provided uncertainties around US economic and trade policies resolve quickly, the global economy should still perform fairly robustly, though somewhat weaker than predicted in September 2024. Global GDP is projected to grow at a steady 3.2% in both 2025 and 2026, roughly in line with 2024, and only marginally below the average pace recorded during the 2010s.</p> <p>Among advanced economies, economic prospects diverge. Growth is expected to remain solid in the United States &ndash; if financial stability persists and investment is not excessively dampened by trade policy uncertainties &ndash; and in Spain. Germany, however, faces sluggish prospects, weighed down by delays in the emergence of the recently unveiled investment plans&rsquo; effects (announced after the forecast cut-off date), while Italy and the United Kingdom are likely to fall in the middle. These differences reflect differing exposure to tariff hikes and varying growth momentum for 2025, established at the end of 2024. By 2026, these disparities are expected to narrow somewhat.</p> <p>In the major emerging economies, namely China, India, Brazil and Turkey, economic activity is expected to slow down in 2025. China&rsquo;s performance is expected to be particularly hampered by enduring structural imbalances. For 2026, the trajectory for emerging economies is expected to be closely tied to the course of monetary policy.</p> <p>Paradoxically, despite tightening trade policies, global trade volumes are set to pick up speed in 2025 and 2026 after two years of subdued momentum. However, this recovery should be partial and notably weaker than anticipated in the previous September forecast (see Chart). Global trade is expected to continue to be driven by emerging economies, and as a result France should experience comparatively modest demand growth. <br />These forecasts come with substantial risks &ndash; primarily emanating from uncertain global trade policy developments: recent tariff announcements by the US administration amplify downside risk significantly with regard to the assumptions adopted.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img class="marge" src="/Articles/4c6dead0-2f56-49e6-baf9-a158c356ac51/images/17c32778-7f0c-421b-a63b-269fe6a41033" alt="Visuel TE-361en" /></p>