Trésor-Info - Publications de la direction générale du Trésor - Uncertainties

World Economic Outlook in Spring 2026: Global Economy Confronted with a New Energy Shock

2026-04-07T00:00:00+02:00

The conflict in the Middle East has weighed on the global economic outlook and has heightened uncertainty. Its impact, however, will depend on the duration and intensity, and will differ across countries according to their energy intensity, energy mix and reliance on hydrocarbon imports.

The global growth outlook has nonetheless been revised upward relative to the autumn forecasts, as the impact of US tariff measures has been smaller than previously anticipated. Global growth is expected to reach 3.2% in both 2026 and 2027, following 3.3% in 2025.

Among advanced economies, growth in the United States is expected to pick up slightly in 2026, supported by the past depreciation of the US dollar and the country’s position as a net exporter of oil and natural gas, before moderating in 2027. Growth in the euro area and the United Kingdom is set to slow, as these economies are more exposed to the energy shock, with growth remaining heterogeneous across countries, notably owing to their respective fiscal policy stances.

In major emerging market economies, growth is projected to moderate slightly in 2026 and 2027. The effects of the conflict in the Middle East are expected to differ markedly depending on whether economies are net importers of hydrocarbons (India, China, Türkiye) or net exporters (Brazil).

Global trade growth is set to slow sharply in 2026 (to 2.2%, after 4.3%), reflecting the full materialisation of the US tariff shock and the energy shock caused by the conflict in the Middle East. Global trade growth is then projected to recover to 2.8% in 2027, reaching its pre-pandemic average (2.8% from 2015 to 2019). In particular, trade in AI-related goods is expected to continue to support global trade growth.

These forecasts are highly uncertain, especially for 2027. The impact of the conflict in the Middle East will depend on its duration and intensity, as well as on the public policy responses adopted by other countries (only the measures announced to date have been taken into account). In addition, US trade policy remains a persistent source of uncertainty.

World Economic Outlook in Autumn 2025: Global Economy Hampered by an Adverse Trade Environment

2025-09-11T00:00:00+02:00

US trade measures have driven the global outlook downwards compared to spring forecasts: global GDP growth is expected to stand at 3.0% in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026, down from 3.3% in 2024.

Among advanced economies, growth is set to considerably slow in 2025 and 2026 in the United States, as consumption is adversely impacted by tariff hikes and budgetary cuts. Euro area growth should be driven by a pick-up in consumption following a decline in inflation and by sustained investment as a result of falling interest rates. However, growth is expected to be hindered by trade tensions and the appreciation of the euro. Germany’s growth is set to be sluggish in 2025, but should recover in 2026 with the help of fiscal stimulus, while weak growth is expected in Italy in spite of support in the form of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP). Spain’s growth is projected to remain far more robust, driven by population growth, dynamic investment and tourism. An expansionary fiscal policy is expected to support the United Kingdom’s growth.

Most major emerging economies are expected to experience a slowdown in growth in 2025 and 2026: in particular, China’s growth is set to falter as a result of trade measures and persistent structural imbalances.

Global trade should continue to be hampered by US trade measures, with growth of just 2.1% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026, significantly below its historical average (2.8% from 2015 to 2019). Recovery in 2025, expected as a result of forecasts of tariff hikes for the first half of the year and demand from advanced economies, should be weaker than projected as it has been hindered by a decline in imports from China and India. In 2026, a pick-up in emerging-economy imports is not expected to offset declining US imports.

The risks surrounding this scenario are mostly skewed to the downside as the Trump administration continues to threaten to impose new tariffs amid persistent geopolitical tensions.

World Economic Outlook in Spring 2025 Growth Amid Global Turbulence

2025-03-20T00:00:00+01:00

The international scenario, set on 21 February, assumes that the United States will double its existing tariffs on imports from the European Union, China, Canada and Mexico from the 2nd quarter of 2025 onwards. Equivalent countermeasures by these trading partners are also assumed to take effect at the same time. The ensuing turbulence is expected to reduce global GDP growth by 0.1 percentage points (pp) in 2025 and by 0.2 pp in 2026. Similarly, world trade is projected to shrink by 0.2 pp in 2025 and by 0.7 pp the following year.

In line with these assumptions, and provided uncertainties around US economic and trade policies resolve quickly, the global economy should still perform fairly robustly, though somewhat weaker than predicted in September 2024. Global GDP is projected to grow at a steady 3.2% in both 2025 and 2026, roughly in line with 2024, and only marginally below the average pace recorded during the 2010s.

Among advanced economies, economic prospects diverge. Growth is expected to remain solid in the United States – if financial stability persists and investment is not excessively dampened by trade policy uncertainties – and in Spain. Germany, however, faces sluggish prospects, weighed down by delays in the emergence of the recently unveiled investment plans’ effects (announced after the forecast cut-off date), while Italy and the United Kingdom are likely to fall in the middle. These differences reflect differing exposure to tariff hikes and varying growth momentum for 2025, established at the end of 2024. By 2026, these disparities are expected to narrow somewhat.

In the major emerging economies, namely China, India, Brazil and Turkey, economic activity is expected to slow down in 2025. China’s performance is expected to be particularly hampered by enduring structural imbalances. For 2026, the trajectory for emerging economies is expected to be closely tied to the course of monetary policy.

Paradoxically, despite tightening trade policies, global trade volumes are set to pick up speed in 2025 and 2026 after two years of subdued momentum. However, this recovery should be partial and notably weaker than anticipated in the previous September forecast (see Chart). Global trade is expected to continue to be driven by emerging economies, and as a result France should experience comparatively modest demand growth.
These forecasts come with substantial risks – primarily emanating from uncertain global trade policy developments: recent tariff announcements by the US administration amplify downside risk significantly with regard to the assumptions adopted.