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DG Trésor projects that the global economy will expand by 3.1% in 2024 and 3.2% in 2025. This growth rate is slightly higher than expectations from the summer but remains below the pre-pandemic average, underscoring the effects of monetary tightening and geopolitical uncertainties. Growth in advanced economies is expected to be moderate, with significant disparities among countries. Meanwhile, emerging markets should experience robust growth, notwithstanding a slowdown in China.

2024-03-19T00:00:00+01:00<p>Global growth is projected at 3.1% in 2024, mirroring the pace set in 2023, with a slight uptick expected in 2025 to 3.2%. This outlook marks a modest improvement over previous forecasts from autumn 2023. Despite easing production constraints and a confirmed inflationary pullback, the global economy remains shackled by the lingering effects of monetary tightening and geopolitical uncertainties. The global economy&rsquo;s growth trajectory, therefore, slightly lags behind the late 2010s average.</p> <p>Growth in advanced economies is anticipated to remain subdued, with significant disparities among countries. In 2024, economic activity is expected to be robust in the United States and Spain but sluggish in other major advanced economies like the United Kingdom and Germany. By 2025, growth rates are anticipated to converge, driven by an acceleration in the euro area and a slowdown in the United States, assuming a gradual return of the savings rate to its historical average.</p> <p>Major emerging economies like India, Turkey and Brazil should see a slowdown in 2024, followed by a rebound in 2025. China&rsquo;s economy is projected to continue slowing, hampered by its failure to pivot its growth model towards domestic demand.</p> <p>After a decline in 2023, global trade is expected to recover in 2024 and 2025. However, the global demand for French exports is predicted to be less robust than international trade. This reflects the more sluggish activity in the euro area, which is expected to rebound modestly in 2024, before accelerating in 2025 (see Chart on this page).</p> <p>Geopolitical uncertainties, the timing and magnitude of key rate cuts, and shifts in consumer behaviour emerge as the primary risks surrounding this scenario.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img class="marge" src="/Articles/36a83a8a-a2db-438c-adc8-ca6e4e4396e6/images/712e0b39-2b04-4185-93ed-5e814da0a470" alt="Visuel TE-339en" /></p>1a308483-d21f-4cdc-b966-b157909abfdd

The economy is facing mixed prospects in the international environment: while buoyed by recovery plans in Europe and falling commodity prices, it also has sticky core inflation and an uncertain geopolitical climate to contend with. World growth is projected to slow in 2023 and rebound moderately in 2024. With the exception of the United Kingdom, advanced economies should avoid a recession, and emerging economies can expect strong economic growth, driven by a rebound in China.

2023-03-21T00:00:00+01:00<p>The world economy is expected to grow by 2.8% in 2023, down markedly from 3.4% in 2022 due to the effects of high inflation and substantial key rate hikes by the major central banks, despite support from the reopening of China's economy. A slightly higher 3.0% is projected for 2024 as monetary policies ease.</p> <p>Positive growth is forecast for advanced economies in 2023, with the exception of the United Kingdom, which is set to enter a recession brought on by 2022's strong inflation and persistent Brexit-related weaknesses in its economy. Over our forecast horizon (2023 and 2024), European economies should continue to be supported by the NextGenerationEU recovery plan, particularly Italy and Spain. In 2024, we expect the United States to benefit from a rebound in investment fuelled by a revival of industry policy.</p> <p>In emerging economies, we anticipate strong economic growth overall, led by China and India, with slowdowns in Brazil and Turkey. China is set for a rebound in 2023, driven by a faster reopening of its economy than expected and a recovery in household spending. In Turkey, the aftermath of the 2023 earthquakes is likely to put a damper on growth.</p> <p>World trade is expected to slow significantly in 2023 due to weaker economic activity before rebounding in 2024. Growth in world demand for French exports (see Chart on this page) should follow the same trend but lag behind global trade growth over the two-year period.</p> <p>The main downside risks to this scenario include inflation developments, financial risks, the war in Ukraine and potential natural disasters.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img class="marge" title="TE-325en" src="/Articles/1a308483-d21f-4cdc-b966-b157909abfdd/images/583af705-8068-4086-a630-d087e53c6b18" alt="TE-325en" /></p>