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Since the mid-2000s, greenhouse gas emissions in France have been declining, against a backdrop of bold climate commitments. Annual changes in these figures are driven by structural shifts as well as cyclical fluctuations. This paper presents a new methodology for estimating the contribution of cyclical effects. These effects heightened the decline in emissions in 2023 and 2024, and contributed only marginally to their trend in 2025.

2026-06-16T00:00:00+02:00<p>France has committed to reducing its gross greenhouse gas emissions by 50% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. The country&rsquo;s domestic emissions have been on a downward trend since 2005, falling by one-third between 1990 and 2025.</p> <p>Changes in greenhouse gas emissions are the result of economic, technological, demographic and climate-related structural transformations which may or may not be the result of public policies, as well as more cyclical factors. These factors include, in particular, unexpected changes in temperature, one-off shocks in energy markets and fluctuations in economic activity in the sectors that generate the highest emissions.</p> <p>A new methodology for quantifying cyclical effects has been developed. It models greenhouse gas emissions for each sector based on specific factors and then identifies, based on the changes in these factors, the portion attributable to cyclical effects.</p> <p>&nbsp;In 2025, it was estimated that emissions decreased by 7.6 MtCO2eq, a 2.1% decline versus 2024. Unlike in the previous two years, it is thought that this fall was primarily due to structural factors with cyclical factors having been virtually neutral (+0.1 percentage points in total). This is because the colder winter of 2025 led to an increase in emissions from heating (+0.2 percentage points), which was partially offset by a cyclical drop in industrial activity (&ndash;0.1 percentage points).&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img class="marge" src="/Articles/a63f64b8-e6fd-4baf-a457-462eaec3ffc1/images/aa8ef6ab-de56-4c85-a753-84120ea13468" alt="Visuel TE-390en" /></p>