Trésor-Info - Publications de la direction générale du Trésor - MacroeconomicFlux de publication de la direction générale du Trésor - MacroeconomicFluxArticlesTag-MacroeconomicCopyright 20262026-07-06T00:00:00+02:00/favicon.pngDirection générale du Trésorhttps://localhost/sitepublic/contact@dgtresor.gouv.fr8681a952-5273-4b46-bb65-33f92e75846dAn Ex Ante Macroeconomic Assessment of the France 2030 Investment PlanThis paper summarises the ex ante macroeconomic assessment of the expected impact of France 2030 – earmarked to fund innovation with a budget of €54bn – on GDP growth and employment up to 2030, which was previously published in a dedicated report. The assessment relies on macroeconomic modelling using two models: Mésange, a joint French Treasury and Insee development and the European Commission’s QUEST III R&D.2026-07-06T00:00:00+02:00<p>The France 2030 Investment Plan supplements and incorporates the fourth Plan d’investissement d’avenir (“Invest for the future programme”, PIA) to bolster French innovation capabilities and technological excellence. With €54bn in appropriations rolled out starting from 2021, this plan aims to extend the changes triggered by the France Relance Recovery Plan and the PIA by boosting industrial competitiveness and emerging technologies, supporting the move to a low-carbon economy and underpinning technological sovereignty.</p>
<p>The macroeconomic impact of France 2030 manifests itself through four channels: fundamental research, private-sector R&D, industrialisation and employee training. In the short term, the research-support measures will increase demand-driven economic activity through a Keynesian approach. In the medium and long term, these measures will spur businesses’ innovation-driven productivity and competitiveness. The purpose of the support measures for industrialisation is to fast-track the take-up of new technologies and improve inter-business competitiveness. Lastly, the training measures will provide for a better match between workers’ skills and businesses’ requirements. </p>
<p>Two models were used to conduct an ex antre macroeconomic assessment of the plan: the Mésange Model, a joint French Treasury (DG Trésor) and Insee development, to assess the effects of economic policies and shocks, and the European Commission’s QUEST III R&D Model for more granular modelling of innovation. </p>
<p>According to the assessment carried out using the Mésange Model, GDP growth should be around 0.4 to 0.6 percentage points by 2030. It is estimated that the plan will lead to between 25,000 and 58,000 jobs being created within the same timeframe. The QUEST III R&D Model also confirms this positive scenario. This ex ante macroeconomic assessment needs to be supplemented with ex post microeconomic analyses in order to gauge the effect on the other aspects covered by France 2030 such as industrial and technological sovereignty or vocational qualification courses. </p>
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