Trésor-Info - Publications de la direction générale du Trésor - Le-Lab-Tresor

Barriers to Migration in the European Union: Does Joining the Union Lead to Lower Barriers?

2024-02-27T00:00:00+01:00

The Working Papers series presents work carried out within DG Treasury, distributed with the aim of enlightening and stimulating public debate. The authors are solely responsible for their work.

This working paper looks at the effect of joining the European Union on openness to migrants, both European and non-European. It replicates and extends Head & Mayer's (2021) gravity model-based analyses of barriers to migration within European countries. Using an event analysis, we show in addition that EU membership is responsible for a reduction in barriers to migration, of over 25% compared to their level 5 years prior to EU entry, for EU migrants.

How Does the European Union’s Carbon Market Impact Firm Productivity?

2023-02-14T00:00:00+01:00

The European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) was introduced in 2005 to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the electricity and heat generation sectors, energy-intensive industry sectors (e.g. refineries, metals, cement, chemicals, glass, polymers, paper, cardboard) and intra-EU commercial aviation. It lowers GHG emissions in a cost-effective manner, without favouring a particular technology. Installations regulated by the EU ETS are required to obtain allowances (either purchased on the market or allocated for free) that match their actual emissions, incentivising them to invest in decarbonising their production processes.

Our paper seeks to examine the effect of the EU ETS on the productivity of firms regulated by the system. In the short term, it is reasonable to expect a negative effect, with the carbon price signal increasing costs, particularly for the production of emissions-intensive goods. However, the EU ETS also changes firms’ investment plans by encouraging investment in low-carbon technologies. In the medium- to long-term, emissions costs can thus ultimately be reduced and firms’ performance improved.

The empirical literature on the subject offers inconclusive results which vary depending on the phases examined (e.g. the pilot phase of the EU ETS, which was relatively unrestrictive in terms of the price of the allowances compared with the most recent, more ambitious phase, see Chart to the right) and from country to country. An examination of manufacturing firms in France, Italy and Spain shows that the EU ETS was not detrimental (insignificant aggregate effect) to average productivity over the 2005 to 2017 period.

Nevertheless, the system’s effects are heterogeneous. Among the EU ETS-regulated firms we examined, its effects on productivity were more positive overall for firms close to the technology frontier or financially unconstrained firms, i.e. those best positioned to invest in decarbonisation.

Quel effet du marché carbone européen sur la productivité des entreprises ?

2023-02-14T00:00:00+01:00

Le système européen d'échange de quotas d'émission (SEQE) a été introduit en 2005 pour réduire les émissions de gaz à effet de serre des secteurs de la production d'électricité et de chaleur, de la grande industrie (raffineries, métaux, ciment, chimie, verre, polymères, papier, carton) et de l'aviation intra-européenne. Il permet de réduire ces émissions de manière efficace en termes de coûts, sans favoriser de technologie particulière. Les installations assujetties doivent disposer de quotas (achetés sur le marché ou reçus à titre gratuit) correspondant à leurs émissions effectives, ce qui les incite à investir pour décarboner leur processus de production.

Nous avons cherché à évaluer l'effet du SEQE sur la productivité des entreprises couvertes. À court terme, on pourrait s'attendre à un effet négatif, le signal-prix mis sur le carbone augmentant les coûts, notamment pour la production de biens à forte intensité en émissions. Cependant, le SEQE modifie aussi les plans d'investissement des entreprises, encourageant les investissements dans des technologies bas-carbone. À moyen et long terme, le coût des émissions peut donc être réduit et la performance des entreprises pourrait être améliorée.

La littérature empirique sur le sujet présente des résultats peu concluants, variables en fonction des phases étudiées (par exemple, phase de lancement du SEQE peu contraignante en termes de prix des quotas versus dernière phase plus ambitieuse, voir Graphique) ou des pays. L'étude des entreprises manufacturières en France, en Italie et en Espagne, indique que le SEQE n'a pas été préjudiciable (effet agrégé non significatif) à la productivité moyenne sur la période 2005-2017.

Les effets sont néanmoins hétérogènes. Parmi les entreprises étudiées et soumises au SEQE, les effets du SEQE sur la productivité auraient été globalement plus favorables parmi les entreprises proches de la frontière technologique et peu contraintes financièrement, c'est-à-dire celles qui étaient le mieux placées pour investir dans la décarbonation.

+ Télécharger l'étude complète Trésor-Éco n° 323>>

+ Autres publications à consulter sur le sujet :

Albrizio S., Kozluk T. et Zipperer V. (2017), "Environmental policies and productivity growth: evidence across industries and firms", Journal of environmental economics and management, 81, 209-226.
European Commission (2015), "Ex-post investigation of cost pass-through in the EU ETS".
Löschel A., Lutz B. et Managi S. (2019), "The impacts of the EU ETS on efficiency and economic performance-an empirical analysis for German manufacturing firms", Resource and Energy Economics, 56, 71-95.
Kozluk T. et Zipperer V. (2014), "Environmental policies and productivity growth: a critical review of empirical findings", OECD Journal: Economic Studies, 2014/1.

+ Voir toute la collection des études Trésor-Éco : Français / English

+ S’abonner à la collection Trésor-Éco : bit.ly/Trésor-Eco

Are low-income households sensitive to tax incentives for energy efficiency investments?

2023-02-13T00:00:00+01:00

The Working Paper series presents work carried out within DG Treasury, disseminated with the aim of enlightening and stimulating public debate. The authors are solely responsible for their work

This paper assesses the impact of the increase in tax credit rate implemented in France on September 1, 2014 on low-income households’ renovation investments. The transition from the CIDD to the CITE increased the tax credit rate by 5 to 30 percentage points (ppt), depending on households’ income and on the type and number of eligible renovations undertaken (i.e., a single renovation item or a combination of items from a schedule). In particular, this study focuses on the effect of the 15 ppt increase (from 15 to 30%) in the tax credit rate on low-income households’ decision to renovate, on the one hand, and on the amounts they invested, on the other hand. Using a Regression Discontinuity Design model, the 15 ppt tax credit rate increase for low-income households was found to have a statistically significant and positive effect on the probability to renovate, which increases by 1.3 ppt (from an average renovation rate of 1.4% before the reform). We also investigate the potential heterogeneity in the treatment effect on this probability. We find that owners of single household dwelling units, larger dwellings and older dwellings are more sensitive to the tax credit rate increase. The impact of the reform also increases with income (among low-income households). Results on the intensive margin (i.e the additional amount spent by households on energy efficiency investments) show that the reform increases the level of investment by 26% (+€970). However, this result depends on the selected treatment group: when we restrict the sample to households undertaking only one renovation item (before and after the reform – as opposed to a combination of two or more after), the effect on the amount of renovation expenditures is no longer statistically significant, while the effect on the decision to renovate remains significant.

Overall, we show that the increase in tax credit rate for renovation investments in 2015 increased the probability for low-income households to undertake renovation work for two or more eligible items, thus increasing their average total amount of investment, but did not encourage them to carry out more costly single-item renovations.

An indicator of the financial cycle in France since the beginning of the 2000s

2022-11-29T00:00:00+01:00

The 2008-2009 financial crisis accentuated the focus on financial stability and highlighted the need to develop new tools and indicators, particularly in terms of macroprudential policy, to better understand the development of financial risks.

Economic authorities – central banks, national Treasuries, market authorities, etc. – along with the academic community acknowledged the role of the financial cycle as an important proxy of these weaknesses. An indicator of the cycle can help understand its current state and the corresponding level of financial risk, based on the evolution of the variables underlying it. Yet, a number of different techniques can be used to develop this indicator.

The Directorate General of the Treasury developed two indicators to measure the financial cycle in France, with one covering short cycles (2 to 8 years) and the other covering longer cycles (8 to 25 years). This approach is used to analyse the build-up or reduction of financial risks over different timeframes and provide insights into the various factors driving the cycle, such as credit to corporates and households, share and housing prices and bond yields.

As an example, the 2-to-8-year French financial cycle indicator hit a high between end-2007 and early 2008, driven by mortgages, residential housing prices and the equity market (see Chart). Their downturn and subsequent swift plunge into negative territory coincided with the subprime crisis in the United States, which then spread to Europe. After a low in late 2009 and a clear recovery until 2011, there was a relatively stable period that included the sovereign debt crisis in 2011-2012. The short-cycle indicator staged a clear rebound from 2021, fuelled by mortgages and housing prices.

Un indicateur du cycle financier en France depuis le début des années 2000

2022-11-29T00:00:00+01:00

La crise financière de 2008-2009 a renforcé l'intérêt accordé à la stabilité financière, mettant en lumière le besoin de nouveaux outils – notamment la politique macroprudentielle – mais aussi de nouveaux indicateurs, afin de mieux comprendre l'évolution des risques financiers.

Les autorités économiques (banques centrales, Trésors nationaux, autorités de marché, etc.) et le monde académique ont identifié le cycle financier comme un baromètre important de ces vulnérabilités. Un indicateur de la position dans ce cycle peut permettre de caractériser différentes phases marquant divers niveaux de risques, selon l'évolution des facteurs qui l'expliquent. Pour autant, différentes techniques peuvent être retenues pour le modéliser.

La construction de deux indicateurs du cycle financier en France par la DG Trésor, l'un portant sur les cycles courts (2 à 8 ans) et l'autre sur les cycles plus longs (8 à 25 ans), permet d'analyser l'accumulation ou la réduction des risques financiers à différentes échelles de temps. Elle permet également de comprendre les différents facteurs du cycle financier (crédit aux entreprises et aux ménages, cours des actions, taux obligataires), ainsi que leur orientation.

À titre d'exemple, l'indicateur du cycle financier français sur 2/8 ans avait atteint un point haut entre fin 2007 et début 2008, tiré par le crédit à l'habitat, le prix de l'immobilier résidentiel et le marché des actions (cf. Graphique). Leur retournement puis leur chute accélérée en territoire négatif coïncident avec l'éclatement de la crise financière des subprimes aux États-Unis, qui s'est ensuite propagée en Europe. Après un point bas fin 2009 et un net rebond jusqu'en 2011, on observe une période atone qui comprend la crise de la dette souveraine en 2011-2012. À partir de 2021, l'indicateur de cycle court connaît un rebond marqué, porté par le crédit à l'habitat et le prix de l'immobilier.

+ Télécharger l'étude complète Trésor-Éco n° 317>>

+ Autres publications à consulter sur le sujet :

Couaillier C. et J. Idier (juillet 2018), Les quatre saisons du cycle financier et le coussin contracyclique, Banque de France.
Banque Centrale Européenne (janvier 2018), Real and financial cycles in EU countries: Stylised facts and modelling implications.
Banque Centrale Européenne (juin 2015), Capturing the financial cycle in Europe.

+ Voir toute la collection des études Trésor-Éco : Français / English

+ S’abonner à la collection Trésor-Éco : bit.ly/Trésor-Eco

European Union's Emissions Trading System and Productivity: Firm-Level Evidence for France, Italy and Spain

2022-09-21T00:00:00+02:00

The Working Paper series presents work carried out within DG Treasury, disseminated with the aim of enlightening and stimulating public debate. The authors are solely responsible for their work.

The European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) was introduced in 2005 in order to incentivize a reduction in carbon emissions in industrial firms in the most efficient way. Despite a low carbon price during the initial phases of the scheme, the EU ETS did foster a reduction in industrial emissions. A key question, though, is whether these reductions came together with lower productivity, as the scheme has constrained production processes. We study the effect of the EU ETS on total factor productivity (TFP) for manufacturing firms in France, Italy and Spain, from 2000 to 2017. The EU ETS is here considered as a quasi-natural experiment and we apply a difference-in-difference framework. We study whether firms reacted differently depending on their initial efficiency, size, financial constraints, sector, and country; or across the different phases of the implementation. The results suggest that the instrument overall was not detrimental to firms' productivity, except for smaller firms, firms initially far from the technological frontier, and financially-constrained ones. The reform had a positive impact on TFP for larger firms and more efficient or less financially-constrained ones. The impact of the EU ETS is found to be very heterogeneous across sectors, the major beneficiaries being the food, chemicals and metallurgy industries. It is also more positive in France than in Italy and Spain.