Trésor-Info - Publications de la direction générale du Trésor - Emerging-economies

World Economic Outlook in Autumn 2025: Global Economy Hampered by an Adverse Trade Environment

2025-09-11T00:00:00+02:00

US trade measures have driven the global outlook downwards compared to spring forecasts: global GDP growth is expected to stand at 3.0% in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026, down from 3.3% in 2024.

Among advanced economies, growth is set to considerably slow in 2025 and 2026 in the United States, as consumption is adversely impacted by tariff hikes and budgetary cuts. Euro area growth should be driven by a pick-up in consumption following a decline in inflation and by sustained investment as a result of falling interest rates. However, growth is expected to be hindered by trade tensions and the appreciation of the euro. Germany’s growth is set to be sluggish in 2025, but should recover in 2026 with the help of fiscal stimulus, while weak growth is expected in Italy in spite of support in the form of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP). Spain’s growth is projected to remain far more robust, driven by population growth, dynamic investment and tourism. An expansionary fiscal policy is expected to support the United Kingdom’s growth.

Most major emerging economies are expected to experience a slowdown in growth in 2025 and 2026: in particular, China’s growth is set to falter as a result of trade measures and persistent structural imbalances.

Global trade should continue to be hampered by US trade measures, with growth of just 2.1% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026, significantly below its historical average (2.8% from 2015 to 2019). Recovery in 2025, expected as a result of forecasts of tariff hikes for the first half of the year and demand from advanced economies, should be weaker than projected as it has been hindered by a decline in imports from China and India. In 2026, a pick-up in emerging-economy imports is not expected to offset declining US imports.

The risks surrounding this scenario are mostly skewed to the downside as the Trump administration continues to threaten to impose new tariffs amid persistent geopolitical tensions.

World Economic Outlook in Spring 2025 Growth Amid Global Turbulence

2025-03-20T00:00:00+01:00

The international scenario, set on 21 February, assumes that the United States will double its existing tariffs on imports from the European Union, China, Canada and Mexico from the 2nd quarter of 2025 onwards. Equivalent countermeasures by these trading partners are also assumed to take effect at the same time. The ensuing turbulence is expected to reduce global GDP growth by 0.1 percentage points (pp) in 2025 and by 0.2 pp in 2026. Similarly, world trade is projected to shrink by 0.2 pp in 2025 and by 0.7 pp the following year.

In line with these assumptions, and provided uncertainties around US economic and trade policies resolve quickly, the global economy should still perform fairly robustly, though somewhat weaker than predicted in September 2024. Global GDP is projected to grow at a steady 3.2% in both 2025 and 2026, roughly in line with 2024, and only marginally below the average pace recorded during the 2010s.

Among advanced economies, economic prospects diverge. Growth is expected to remain solid in the United States – if financial stability persists and investment is not excessively dampened by trade policy uncertainties – and in Spain. Germany, however, faces sluggish prospects, weighed down by delays in the emergence of the recently unveiled investment plans’ effects (announced after the forecast cut-off date), while Italy and the United Kingdom are likely to fall in the middle. These differences reflect differing exposure to tariff hikes and varying growth momentum for 2025, established at the end of 2024. By 2026, these disparities are expected to narrow somewhat.

In the major emerging economies, namely China, India, Brazil and Turkey, economic activity is expected to slow down in 2025. China’s performance is expected to be particularly hampered by enduring structural imbalances. For 2026, the trajectory for emerging economies is expected to be closely tied to the course of monetary policy.

Paradoxically, despite tightening trade policies, global trade volumes are set to pick up speed in 2025 and 2026 after two years of subdued momentum. However, this recovery should be partial and notably weaker than anticipated in the previous September forecast (see Chart). Global trade is expected to continue to be driven by emerging economies, and as a result France should experience comparatively modest demand growth.
These forecasts come with substantial risks – primarily emanating from uncertain global trade policy developments: recent tariff announcements by the US administration amplify downside risk significantly with regard to the assumptions adopted.

World Economic Outlook in Autumn 2024: Monetary Easing and Geopolitical Tensions

2024-09-19T00:00:00+02:00

Global growth is expected to reach 3.2% in 2024, a similar rate to 2023, before increasing to 3.4% in 2025. This outlook is a slight improvement on forecasts released in spring 2024. In 2025, global activity is anticipated to grow at the same pace as in the second half of the 2010s, supported by monetary policy easing and strong performances in emerging countries.

Growth is forecast to remain uneven across advanced economies. In 2024, activity is expected to be particularly robust in the United States and Spain, more moderate in Italy and the United Kingdom and flat in Germany. These advanced economies are experiencing different levels of growth due to disparities in consumption patterns and export performance. Growth rates are expected to converge in 2025, with an acceleration of activity in the euro area and a slight slowdown in the United States, primarily due to a weakening of household consumption.

Although still strong, activity in the major emerging economies – China, India, Brazil and Turkey – is projected to slow compared with 2023, particularly in China where structural imbalances are likely to continue to weigh on activity.

Following a contraction in 2023, global trade is anticipated to recover in 2024 and accelerate in 2025. Global trade is expected to be driven primarily by emerging economies and the United States, resulting in slower growth in global demand for French exports (see Chart).

Global activity could nonetheless be impacted by an escalation of geopolitical tensions, which are the main risks surrounding this scenario.

World Economic Outlook in Spring 2024 Moderate and Uneven Growth

2024-03-19T00:00:00+01:00

Global growth is projected at 3.1% in 2024, mirroring the pace set in 2023, with a slight uptick expected in 2025 to 3.2%. This outlook marks a modest improvement over previous forecasts from autumn 2023. Despite easing production constraints and a confirmed inflationary pullback, the global economy remains shackled by the lingering effects of monetary tightening and geopolitical uncertainties. The global economy’s growth trajectory, therefore, slightly lags behind the late 2010s average.

Growth in advanced economies is anticipated to remain subdued, with significant disparities among countries. In 2024, economic activity is expected to be robust in the United States and Spain but sluggish in other major advanced economies like the United Kingdom and Germany. By 2025, growth rates are anticipated to converge, driven by an acceleration in the euro area and a slowdown in the United States, assuming a gradual return of the savings rate to its historical average.

Major emerging economies like India, Turkey and Brazil should see a slowdown in 2024, followed by a rebound in 2025. China’s economy is projected to continue slowing, hampered by its failure to pivot its growth model towards domestic demand.

After a decline in 2023, global trade is expected to recover in 2024 and 2025. However, the global demand for French exports is predicted to be less robust than international trade. This reflects the more sluggish activity in the euro area, which is expected to rebound modestly in 2024, before accelerating in 2025 (see Chart on this page).

Geopolitical uncertainties, the timing and magnitude of key rate cuts, and shifts in consumer behaviour emerge as the primary risks surrounding this scenario.

World Economic Outlook in Autumn 2023: The Economy is Holding Out Against Rising Interest Rates

2023-09-12T00:00:00+02:00

Global growth is expected to slow to 3.0% in 2023, down from 3.5% in 2022. This is primarily due to the tightening of monetary policy to cut inflation. In 2024, the world economy should grow at the same pace (3.0%) which will still be below its pre-COVID average, as the continuing slowdown in advanced countries is being offset by more robust growth in certain emerging ones.

In advanced economies, economic activity held up better than projected during the first half of 2023. In Europe, the supply of energy this winter has been secured and the supply-chain problems facing businesses have eased. The slowdown in growth in 2023 and 2024 is chiefly the result of monetary tightening and its effect on investment. Each country’s growth path is also contingent on its residual catch-up capabilities following the COVID-19 pandemic, especially as regards consumption, which are greater in the euro area than in the United States, and on the extent of its exposure to world trade which is putting a drag on Germany in particular.

In emerging economies, growth is set to remain vibrant overall in 2023 but could show the first signs that it is running out of steam. As an example, China should experience a more limited recovery (+5.0%) than first forecast, due to the weak upturn in consumption and little support from the authorities against the backdrop of the real estate crisis. In 2024, it is estimated that most emerging economies will benefit from a reduction in inflationary pressure and the relaxing of monetary policies.

It is projected that world trade will slow significantly in 2023 in the wake of the severe contraction in trade during winter 2022-2023, before returning to normal levels in 2024. World demand for French exports (see Chart) should fall slightly in 2023 due to lower imports in advanced countries before bouncing back in 2024, driven by faster growth in the euro area.

The main risks to this scenario are changes to inflation and the effect of monetary policy on economic activity and on the financial sector.

Emerging Economies and Climate Change

2023-06-15T00:00:00+02:00

The economic effects of climate change are becoming increasingly consequential as the pace of long-term environmental changes accelerates and extreme weather events increase in frequency and intensity. Vulnerability to climate change has become central to identifying and assessing potential risks to the growth trajectories of emerging economies. A country may be considered vulnerable due to its physical exposure to climate change, the sectoral composition of its economy or its adaptive capacity.

Most of the major emerging economies are low contributors to global warming, yet they are much more vulnerable to its consequences than advanced economies, albeit to differing degrees of exposure (see chart on this page). The countries most exposed to environmental changes (rising sea levels, desertification) and extreme weather events are those in tropical areas in sub-Saharan Africa, Asia and Latin America.

The sectoral and geographic structure of some emerging economies increases their vulnerability to climate change. Those particularly dependent on rain-fed agriculture are expected to suffer lower crop yields (sub-Saharan Africa and Southern Asia), whereas countries where most of the economic activity is in coastal regions will have to contend with rising sea levels (Southeast Asia). Arid and semi-arid regions (North Africa and the Middle East) could see disastrous consequences from water stress.

Not all emerging economies have the same adaptive capacity to cope with these changes, and the variation between them is closely tied to their level of development. The lack of infrastructure or medical professionals, for example, could significantly exacerbate the consequences of climate change in numerous countries. International cooperation is both needed and warranted to reduce the impacts of climate change on these economies and the associated side effects.

World Economic Outlook in Spring 2023: The Economy Reaches Its Trough

2023-03-21T00:00:00+01:00

The world economy is expected to grow by 2.8% in 2023, down markedly from 3.4% in 2022 due to the effects of high inflation and substantial key rate hikes by the major central banks, despite support from the reopening of China's economy. A slightly higher 3.0% is projected for 2024 as monetary policies ease.

Positive growth is forecast for advanced economies in 2023, with the exception of the United Kingdom, which is set to enter a recession brought on by 2022's strong inflation and persistent Brexit-related weaknesses in its economy. Over our forecast horizon (2023 and 2024), European economies should continue to be supported by the NextGenerationEU recovery plan, particularly Italy and Spain. In 2024, we expect the United States to benefit from a rebound in investment fuelled by a revival of industry policy.

In emerging economies, we anticipate strong economic growth overall, led by China and India, with slowdowns in Brazil and Turkey. China is set for a rebound in 2023, driven by a faster reopening of its economy than expected and a recovery in household spending. In Turkey, the aftermath of the 2023 earthquakes is likely to put a damper on growth.

World trade is expected to slow significantly in 2023 due to weaker economic activity before rebounding in 2024. Growth in world demand for French exports (see Chart on this page) should follow the same trend but lag behind global trade growth over the two-year period.

The main downside risks to this scenario include inflation developments, financial risks, the war in Ukraine and potential natural disasters.